Country: Togo Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Persistent insecurity in northern Togo, marked by the activities of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), population displacement, and limited access to income opportunities, is the main driver of acute food insecurity, restricting household access to livelihoods, farmland, and markets. At the start of the 2026 agricultural season, favorable weather conditions and government support measures are expected to strengthen production in Togo and facilitate food access in secure areas. However, in the north, affected by insecurity, households continue to face reduced access to farmland and markets. Between March and April 2026, food access is expected to remain generally stable, supported by residual stocks and market access, before deteriorating from May onward with the lean season, marked by stock depletion and increased market dependence. This pressure will be more pronounced in insecure areas, where households will be exposed to consumption gaps during the lean season. In northern Togo, particularly in the Savanes Region, the persistence and evolution of the conflict involving JNIM continue to degrade household livelihoods and disrupt local economic activities. The concentration of attacks in border areas, combined with a shift toward more lethal tactics such as the use of improvised explosive devices, increases risks for civilians and limits the movement of goods and people, access to markets, and income-earning opportunities. Furthermore, the exploitation of informal economic networks, particularly through cross-border trade in livestock and motorcycles, strengthens the operational capacity of armed groups while further weakening local economies. Despite the prolonged state of emergency and security efforts, the situation is expected to remain volatile, likely continuing to restrict poor households’ access to food and income sources. Despite localized security constraints, agricultural production in the 2025 season was generally above the previous year and the five-year average, supported by favorable rainfall and production support measures. Togo’s national herd increased overall in 2025 compared to the previous season and the five-year average, reflecting strengthened livestock production capacity supported by livestock promotion efforts and improved animal health management. This dynamic supported the buildup and replenishment of household food stocks after the harvest, contributing to a more regular market supply in March 2026 and relative price stability. As a result, national food availability improved, supporting household consumption. However, poor households, particularly those in insecurity-affected areas or facing structural constraints, may continue to experience difficulties accessing sufficient food despite overall production improvements. Seasonal forecasts for the 2026-2027 season from the AGRHYMET Regional Center indicate generally typical to locally above-average rainfall in the south, with short dry spells at the beginning of the season and longer ones toward the end. These conditions may affect yields and food stocks, particularly in vulnerable areas such as the Savanes Region. At the same time, the Togolese government has strengthened production support measures, including the provision of inputs, credit, advisory services to farmers, mechanization, and the expansion of planned agricultural development zones (ZAAP). The conflict in the Middle East is likely to impact Togo through rising fuel and fertilizer costs, as Togo is highly dependent on petroleum imports. The recent increase in global oil prices is likely to be transmitted to local fuel prices, contributing to higher transport costs. At the same time, disruptions in fertilizer supply could reduce availability and increase prices. These constraints occur during the key input supply period for the 2026 agricultural season. Despite government support measures (subsidies and price regulation), the ability to offset these shocks may remain limited if the conflict and international market disruptions persist in the long term. In this context, rising agricultural production costs will likely reduce input use and weigh on yields. Over time, these dynamics will likely increase food prices and reduce purchasing power for market-dependent households. Food demand at the national level is stable or declining but remains very high in the north due to internally displaced persons and refugees, placing significant pressure on markets. These markets are essential for poor households, as they represent their main source of access to staple foods such as maize, sorghum, cowpeas, and rice. Despite a general improvement in supply countrywide due to the 2025-2026 harvests, the Savanes Region faces below-average cereal supply due to insecurity, with weak trade flows between Kpendjal and other prefectures, according to the Market and Food Security Analysis Bulletin (SIM/WFP, January 2026). Nationally, prices of white maize decreased by 41 percent in January 2026 compared to January 2025 and by 25 percent compared to the five-year average; red sorghum by 38 percent and 13 percent, and white cowpeas by 40 percent and 9. 5 percent, facilitating food access for vulnerable households. In the north, prices have also declined in line with national trends; however, staple cereal prices remain higher there compared to other parts of the country.
Togo – Key Message Update: Insecurity and market disruptions in the north limit the benefits of favorable agricultural production, March – September 2026
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