Country: Sri Lanka Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in wet zone plantation areas, western and northern coastal fishing areas, and urban and peri-urban districts through January 2027. Poor households remain highly market dependent, relying on purchased food due to limited own-production and reliance on informal incomes, in a context of elevated food and essential non-food costs. Seasonal income-earning opportunities are available, but wages remain insufficient to fully offset elevated food and living costs. In September, above-average rainfall, localized flooding, strong winds, and landslides temporarily disrupted livelihoods, particularly in upcountry plantation areas and coastal communities. In coastal fishing areas, rough sea conditions and strong winds toward the end of the southwest monsoon period have reduced fishing days, while elevated fuel and operating costs continue to erode net fishing income. Weather-related disruptions are expected to temporarily affect labor opportunities, commodity movement, and market access, further straining food access among poor households. In the intermediate and dry zones, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in September, with deterioration to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) expected in the dry zone from October through January. The 2026 yala harvest will be completed in September with expected above-average yields, which, combined with the above-average maha production, has supported national rice availability and self-sufficiency. However, as harvests are progressively consumed, household food stocks are expected to tighten later in the year. Starting in October, increasing seasonal market dependence and potential weather-related disruptions during the second intermonsoon and northeast monsoon are expected to increasingly constrain food access in dry-zone areas. Localized flooding and other weather-related disruptions may temporarily affect livelihoods, transport, and market access. As the 2026/27 maha harvest becomes available from January, food and income access is expected to improve, supporting a return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in most dry-zone areas. The 2026 yala paddy harvest is expected to be above average, supported by an above-average area planted and generally favorable crop conditions. While final production estimates are not yet available, the government has expanded its paddy procurement program and approved an additional 2. 5 billion LKR as procurement requirements exceeded the initial allocation. However, elevated fertilizer, fuel, harvesting, processing, and transport costs continue to increase production and post-harvest costs and may constrain income gains for some farmers, particularly smallholders. Localized crop and livestock losses have been reported in parts of the dry and intermediate zones due to prolonged dry conditions and reduced water availability, but overall yala production is still expected to be favorable. As of September 18, the LKR has depreciated 6. 7 percent against the USD since January, while inflation continued to increase in August amid elevated food prices and growing energy costs associated with the escalation in the Middle East. Annual headline inflation, as measured by the Colombo Consumer Price Index, increased from 2. 3 percent in January to 8. 0 percent in September, reaching its highest level in three years, largely driven by increasing food inflation. Continued escalation in the Middle East has placed upward pressure on domestic fuel prices, with the government announcing fuel price increases effective October 1, further increasing transportation and other operating costs. Rice prices eased slightly month-on-month in August with the yala harvest but remained elevated relative to average, with Nadu and Samba rice prices 13 and 11 percent above their respective five-year averages. Elevated fuel, transport, and food prices are constraining purchasing power among poor, market-reliant households and limiting access to food and essential non-food items, particularly in urban, plantation, and coastal fishing areas. As of September, above-average rainfall is forecast for the October-November second intermonsoon in the wet, dry, and parts of the intermediate zones. Above-average rainfall is expected to improve water availability and support seasonal agricultural activities. However, periods of heavy rainfall will likely cause localized flooding, waterlogging, and landslides, disrupting agricultural, fishing, transport, labor, and market activities, particularly in the wet zone, intermediate zone, and coastal belt.
Sri Lanka – Key Message Update: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes likely to expand to the dry zone from October to January, September 2026 – January 2027
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