Country: Nepal Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!)-aligned outcomes are anticipated in the worst flood-affected areas of Rasuwa District, supported by humanitarian assistance; however, some households will likely face outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as food and income sources are expected to be limited. Flooding has disrupted livelihood activities, destroyed productive assets, and damaged key infrastructure, limiting household income and likely constraining access to food through at least January 2027. Throughout the rest of the country, localized Stressed (IPC Phase 2)-aligned outcomes are expected in Sudurpashchim, Karnali, Koshi, and Lumbini provinces, with widespread Minimal (IPC Phase 1)-aligned outcomes elsewhere. In Rasuwa, Nuwakot, and Dhading districts, recovery from the catastrophic flooding and landslide in late August continues. The Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment completed in September found that over 1, 800 hectares of crops were damaged, with the majority of damage (nearly 1, 700 hectares) to paddy (rice) crops. Nuwakot reported the most crop damage, accounting for nearly 70 percent of total affected crops. Livestock losses were also reported; however, the exact figures are difficult to quantify as livestock are difficult to count. The government estimates that over 250, 000 livestock were impacted, with poultry the most affected. These crop losses are likely to reduce access to food and income, especially ahead of the upcoming rice harvest starting in October. The government and humanitarians are providing food and other assistance to flood-affected households in Rasuwa, Nuwakot, and Dhading districts. WFP distributed 127 metric tons of food for the first round of food assistance to 15, 500 people. Food assistance is expected to persist through at least January. Cash is also being distributed to support household access to shelters and other basic needs, with households receiving 15, 000 NPR/month for at least six months. In western Nepal, Save the Children reports that flooding and landslides displaced almost 750 families. Rainfall for the June to October monsoon season has been mixed as of late September; rainfall deficits are up to 60 percent of normal in localized areas of western Nepal. In late September, heavy rainfall resulted in flooding and landslides in Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. The recent floods and landslides have destroyed standing crops ready for harvest and disrupted markets. The complete extent of crop damage is expected to drive localized crop losses. Furthermore, the flooding and landslides have disrupted markets and the movement of goods. Notably, major trade routes between Nepal and China have been destroyed, disrupting trade. This is expected to negatively affect apple and livestock availability ahead of the October/November festivals. The harvesting season is ongoing for some crops and starting soon for others. The August/September maize harvest is nearing conclusion at average levels across the Hill and Terai zones. Households in the Hill and Mountain zones have begun harvesting apples and cardamom slightly ahead of the typical October start and, combined with the typical seasonal sale of small livestock, are boosting household income ahead of the festival season in October/November. The rice harvest is expected to start in October, and while it is still expected to be average, localized areas are expected to face production shortfalls given flooding and landslides. High and rising food and fuel prices are straining household purchasing power as annual headline inflation has steadily increased since late 2025. Annual headline inflation in July 2026 was nearly 6 percent up from 2. 4 percent in January. Diesel prices in August 2026 were nearly 40 percent higher than at the same time last year and over 25 percent higher than five-year average. In August 2026, prices of most staple foods remained stable compared to July 2026, except for potatoes, which increased by 10 percent. The year-on-year increase in rice was as high as 9 percent, and mustard oil was 14 percent. Prices of rice, beans, and mustard oil remain 7 to 14 percent above the five-year average. In particular, landslides along major road networks contributed to higher food prices, as prices of most food items in Hill and Mountain zones were 2-30 percent higher than in Terai in August 2026.
Nepal: Key Message Update – Weak income, localized disasters, and high prices constrain food access, September 2026 – January 2027
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