Country: Afghanistan Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Below-average cumulative precipitation conditions (October 1, 2025, through April 25, 2026) are seen in most parts of the country while localized average to slightly above-average cumulative precipitation conditions exist in the west, north, northeast, and south. All basins in the country have below-average snow water equivalent (SWE) except for above-average SWE in some isolated places in the Bala Murghab_Kushk and Balkhab basins as of April 25, 2026. Snow water volume (SWV) levels are normal in Bala Murghab_Kushk, Farah_Adraskan, and Khash_Khuspas basins due to late March to early April precipitation, while other basins exhibit below normal levels. SWV reached zero levels in Khulm, Shirin Tgab, and Ghazni basins four to eight weeks earlier-than-normal. SWV levels are at record minimums in Panj, Kokcha_Ab-i-Rustaq, and Khanabad basins in the northeast as of April 26, 2026. ENSO-neutra l conditions are likely to continue till May 2026. El Niño is expected by June-August 2026. El Niño is expected (more than 90% chance) to persist through December 2026. The CHIRPS-GEFS short-term forecast for cumulative precipitation (October 1, 2025 – May 10, 2026) predicts below-average precipitation (45–90% of average) conditions in most parts of the country. However, average to above-average cumulative precipitation conditions may be found in isolated locations in western, northern, northeastern, and southern parts by the end of the forecast period. ECMWF weekly forecast for April 27 – May 4, 2026, as of April 28, 2026, indicates increased likelihood of above average precipitation in central, southeastern, northeastern, and northern parts while there is no tilt in odds towards either above- or below average precipitation elsewhere. Below average precipitation is most likely in the country during the forecast period May 4 -11, 2026. According to field reports, widespread precipitation during late March – early April facilitated increased spring wheat planting. Wheat and pasture conditions are generally favorable, with some isolated places exhibiting below average conditions in the north, central highlands, east, and southeast. Harvest of early-sown wheat is expected to begin in May as per schedule. Water shortage is not expected for first season late sown crops. Field reports indicate that localized flooding caused damage in settlements along river plains and urban areas in nearly all provinces during late March to early April. However, there is no risk of floods or landslides due to dry weather since mid-April, and below-average precipitation forecasted until mid-May. Groundwater conditions are expected to remain below average in most basins across the country.
Afghanistan Seasonal Monitor: Precipitation received in April may allow normal completion of the main 2025/26 agricultural season (April 29, 2026)
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