Country: World Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Five key points to help you understand this climate phenomenon and how the Red Cross is taking action to protect vulnerable communities. Weather models indicate that a ‘Super El Niño’ is imminent, which could result in temperature increases of over 2°C or 3°C in the Pacific Ocean. While every El Niño event is unique, historical records indicate that its onset brings an increased risk of severe droughts in Central America and torrential rains in the Southern Cone. In this context, proactive action and disaster preparedness are our best tools for coping with this phenomenon. In this article, based on a recent conversation between Juan Bazo, a meteorologist at the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre, and Estefany Jiménez, Communications Officer for the IFRC in the Americas, we break down the scientific evidence and the actions needed to protect the most vulnerable communities in the face of this multi-hazard scenario. 1. Why is there talk of a ‘Super El Niño’ this year? For the El Niño phenomenon to be officially declared, the temperature of the Pacific Ocean need only rise 0. 5°C above the historical average. Forecasts indicate that we could expect increases of between 2°C and 3°C in the central Pacific in 2026. It is these expected values that have led to terms such as ‘Super El Niño’ being used, as was the case in 2015 with ‘Godzilla El Niño’. The transition from cooling conditions (La Niña) to extreme warming has been much faster than usual, forcing humanitarian organizations such as the IFRC to scale up their preparedness levels immediately. 2. What impact would a ‘Super El Niño’ have on Central America and the Caribbean? El Niño does not affect the entire continent in the same way. One of the greatest concerns in the north is the reduction in rainfall. In Central America and the Caribbean, El Niño typically manifests as a significant reduction in cumulative rainfall. This does not mean there is no rain at all, but rather that the pattern of precipitation is irregular and insufficient to sustain traditional agricultural cycles. The Central American Dry Corridor is one of the regions where the impact is particularly severe, with prolonged water deficits directly threatening food security and the livelihoods of thousands of families. Water scarcity affects not only crops but also increases public health risks related to access to safe water and hygiene. 3. What effects could be expected from a ‘Super El Niño’ in South America? Unlike in the north, El Niño has the opposite effect in the southern part of the continent. While countries such as Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil face drier conditions and an increased risk of wildfires, regions in southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina and central Chile must prepare for above-average rainfall. This geographical contrast within the same continent means that the Red Cross and its partners must implement different strategies. 4. What is the forecast for the hurricane season under the ‘Super Niño’? Historically, there has been a direct correlation between the presence of a strong El Niño phenomenon and a decrease in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. However, this statistic should not be interpreted as a signal to let our guard down. Although the total number of storms may be lower, current atmospheric conditions are highly dynamic. Just one tropical storm developing and making landfall can devastate entire communities. In the Pacific, where hurricanes also occur, rising sea temperatures combined with changes in wind patterns caused by El Niño can create conditions that are more favorable for storm formation. Regardless of the forecast, decades of the Red Cross supporting communities exposed to hurricanes have made it clear that the most efficient, effective and ethical approach is to invest in preparedness and early action initiatives to protect more communities and their livelihoods. 5. How can we prepare before the impacts hit? The Red Cross network’s main strategy for addressing this phenomenon is anticipatory action, which refers to any action taken before a crisis occurs with the aim of preventing or reducing the potential impacts of a disaster. The Climate Centre collaborates with National Societies to update Early Action Protocols, enabling the immediate release of emergency funding when specific scientific thresholds are met. The aim is to anticipate risks, strengthen preparedness and use scientific evidence to protect households, ensure effective humanitarian assistance and safeguard community health before the effects of El Niño peak.
World: The 2026 ‘Super El Niño’: How are we preparing for its impact on Latin America and the Caribbean?
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