Country: Somalia Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization cautions that there is no room for complacency in the country’s battle to ensure food security in the face of threefold dangers. The humanitarian crisis confronting Somalia has not abated with the country indirectly impacted by conflict in the Middle East, prolonged drought and forecasted El Niño floods later this year, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned. The Iran war has triggered rapidly rising food and water prices in the country, eroding household purchasing power, disrupting trade and markets, and damaging supply chains. Government figures show that the price of fuel has doubled in Mogadishu from about $0. 60 to about $1. 50 per litre with knock on effects across the supply chain in a country hugely reliant on imported food. “The exorbitant fuel price rises are driving inflation in food, transport, utilities, and services, significantly raising logistics costs, ” said FAO’s Food Security Cluster Coordinator Gordon Dudi. “The cost of staple foods and essential commodity prices have surged, further eroding household purchasing power. “High prices of agricultural and livestock inputs (including transport costs), equipment and services could lead to reduced planting areas and unattainable costs of production during the Gu season. ” Mr Dudi said that a constrained global funding environment and shifting donor attention have combined to reduce operational efficiency and increase the risk of scaled down assistance. Furthermore, agricultural and livestock deliveries especially in hard to reach and drought affected areas – have declined. Latest data released by FAO’s Somalia Water and Land Information System (SWALIM) shows that recent rainfall has brought some respite – and even flooding – in parts of the country, with the Shabelle river remaining dangerously high at Jowhar. But at the same time, areas of the south and central coastal areas continue to face severe water shortages, with drought conditions especially bad in Southwest State. The data shows that Somalia faces a fragile and uneven short to medium term recovery where lives and livelihoods continue to be endangered by food insecurity driven by the near-total failure of the 2025 Deyr (October–December) rains, followed by a harsh and dry Jilaal season from January to March 2026. Between April and June 2026, an estimated 5. 5 million people in Somalia are projected to experience severe acute food insecurity – those classified under IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse. Of these, close to 1. 6 million people are in Phase 4 (Emergency). FAO and other UN agencies and NGOs have warned that the scale and severity of the crisis require urgent humanitarian support. An IPC analysis for the April – June projection period is ongoing; updated results are expected by mid-May 2026. While the April to June Gu season is expected to bring some drought respite for farmers and pastoralists, neither crop production nor livestock numbers are expected to fully recover before the possible arrival of El Niño, often characterized by heavy rainfall and flooding in Somalia. Rainfall during the October–December 2026 Deyr season was less than 30% below normal in many areas disrupting livelihoods and triggering widespread food insecurity, resulting in crop and pastureland failures and mass displacements. Livestock deaths are also widespread, with rangelands left severely degraded by the drought and water sources either drying up or becoming contaminated. Citing data from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, SWALIM’s Lead Meteorologist Bethwell Mutai said that while rainfall and surface run-off from hilly land in Ethiopia up until the end of May are likely to remain manageable, the El Niño phenomenon is likely to develop from the middle of this year, intensifying by the end of 2026. “El Niño is expected to be more intense than 2023, making it a major driver of extreme weather conditions, ” he said. “From that time onwards we’re likely to see a shift from drought concerns to flood risks. But later the main risk is likely to shift to flooding, especially along the Juba and Shabelle, the country’s two main rivers. “In fact, there is a possibility that there could be flooding downstream of the two rivers before the arrival of El Niño because of above-normal Kiremt rains from June to September. ” Dr Mutai said it was imperative to continue support for drought-affected communities while also preparing for possible floods and fuel shortages. In the short term, temperatures have soared between 35°C and 40°C, forcing communities to rely on expensive trucked water. Worsening soil dryness is commonplace, along with increased water scarcity. “Even if rainfall during the ongoing April to June 2026 Gu season is more than we predict, households with depleted seed stocks will be unable to plant without immediate agricultural support, ” FAO Somalia Representative Etienne Peterschmitt said. “Humanitarian assistance must be sustained throughout 2026 and into 2027 if we are to prevent further suffering and help the affected population recover from the drought emergency and prepare for the arrival of El Niño. “We cannot be complacent if we are to address the triple threat to food security. The time to act is now! ” Note to editors The UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund allocated $10 million for early drought action, aiming to assist over 600, 000 people. However, Somalia’s 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) is only 11. 3% funded (as of March), leaving critical gaps in food, water, and health support. Humanitarian assistance must be urgently scaled up and sustained at least until mid-2026 to prevent extreme food security and nutrition outcomes. Immediate priorities include: The need to refocus humanitarian assistance on rural and underserved areas to prevent displacement to urban area Enhancing Anticipatory Action (AA) as a cost-effective way to mitigate the impact of predictable shocks (like drought and floods) before they escalate into full-scale disasters Emergency water provision (borehole rehabilitation, water trucking, temporary water points) Livestock support (feed, water, supplements, veterinary services) Unconditional cash transfers to preserve household purchasing power and prevent asset loss Unconditional cash transfers plus quality emergency agriculture and livestock kits (cash plus) to ensure immediate availability and access to nutritious food through own production, while in simultaneity sustain animal health and avert further livelihood assets depletion Conditional cash transfers through temporary employment/cash for work schemes to facilitate access to food while supporting asset building, restoration or maintenance. Pre-emptive destocking and strategic herd concentration near viable water sources Preparations for 2026 Gu (desilting berkads and pans, rehabilitating shallow wells, distributing drought-tolerant seeds) Strengthened hydrometeorological monitoring for early rainfall onset tracking. Contact Alastair Lawson-Tancred Communications Specialist| FAO Somalia+88-01302 870545 (WhatsApp) +252772117149Alastair. lawsontancred@fao. org
Somalia faces a triple threat of drought, Middle East Conflict and predicted El Niño flooding, FAO warns
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