Country: Cuba Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Please refer to the attached file. A. SITUATION ANALYSIS Description of the crisis Melissa originated as a tropical wave on 25 October 2025 and rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm by 28 October, reaching sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and a central pressure of 892 millibars, ranking it among the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Caribbean basin (NOAA, 2025). After striking Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, Melissa made landfall in eastern Cuba on 29 October as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph (195 km/h). The system produced rainfall totals of 10–25 inches (250–635 mm), with localised peaks of 15 inches at Charco Redondo and 14 inches at Las Villas Reservoir, causing severe flooding, landslides, and significant storm-surge impacts across the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, and Guantánamo. Close to 2. 2 million people were affected, with no fatalities reported (OCHA, 2025a). Cuban authorities, supported by the Cuban Red Cross (CRC), undertook extensive preparedness measures. The provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camagüey were placed under the highest alert level, more than 735, 000 people were evacuated, and approximately 120, 000 sought shelter in state facilities (United Nations System in Cuba, 2025). The impact on infrastructure and essential services was widespread. More than 215, 000 homes were damaged or destroyed – a figure potentially rising to 300, 000 – affecting an estimated 645, 000 people, half of whom are considered vulnerable, with approximately 2, 669 people still displaced as of midDecember 2025 (IOM, 2025). Of the 642 healthcare institutions that sustained damage, 235 have since been rehabilitated (PAHO/WHO, 2026a). A total of 2, 117 educational centres were affected, disrupting schooling for over 670, 000 students (OCHA, 2025b). Around 450, 000 people lacked access to safe water in the immediate aftermath (OCHA, 2025c). Livelihoods were also heavily impacted: at least 158, 000 hectares of crops were damaged or destroyed – including grains, cassava, plantains, and coffee – alongside significant losses to fishing vessels and livestock (OCHA, 2025b; IOM, 2025). Recovery has been particularly challenging due to pre-existing structural vulnerabilities and the cumulative effects of prior disasters, including Hurricanes Oscar and Rafael in 2024, from which many communities had not yet fully recovered (IFRC, 2025). Cuba has faced four consecutive years of significant shocks without a sustained recovery window, contributing to a marked deterioration in socioeconomic conditions. Between 2019 and 2025, key health indicators have deteriorated: infant mortality increased from 5. 0 to 9. 9 per 1, 000 live births; maternal mortality from 37. 4 to 44. 1 per 100, 000 live births; and the low-birth-weight rate from 5. 4% to 7. 8% (United Nations System in Cuba, 2026; MINSAP, 2025). Communicable diseases have also increased, with tuberculosis rising from 5. 7 to 12. 2 per 100, 000 inhabitants, syphilis from 38. 1 to 72. 3, and hepatitis A from 3. 4 to 25. 9 per 100, 000 inhabitants (United Nations System in Cuba, 2026). Food production has declined by more than 50% between 2021 and 2025, while the resident population is estimated to have decreased by approximately 14–18% due to sustained outward migration (United Nations System in Cuba, 2026). The situation has been further aggravated by concurrent outbreaks of dengue, Oropouche, and chikungunya, declared by Cuba’s Ministry of Public Health (MINSAP) in October 2025. A total of 27, 755 cases of Oropouche, 30, 894 of dengue, and 52, 674 of chikungunya have been reported nationwide (United Nations System in Cuba, 2026). Heavy rainfall following the hurricane intensified mosquito breeding and accelerated disease transmission, placing additional pressure on the already constrained health system (OCHA, 2025d). Contributing factors include deteriorating environmental hygiene, persistent shortages of medicines and diagnostic reagents, and a reduced health workforce. Approximately 2 million people with hypertension, 1 million with diabetes, and 1 million with asthma have experienced disruptions in treatment, increasing the risk of complications (United Nations System in Cuba, 2026). Cuba is also experiencing severe energy and fuel constraints that have become a dominant compounding factor across all sectors. Cuba’s domestic oil production covers only around 40% of estimated daily demand of 100, 000 barrels, leaving the system highly exposed to external supply disruptions (CFR, 2026). Since January 2026, disruptions in petroleum product imports – linked to broader geopolitical dynamics and international market conditions – have sharply reduced fuel availability nationwide (ACAPS, 2026). The national electricity grid has experienced recurring failures, including at least three complete collapses between late 2025 and March 2026; during the most severe episode, on 16 March, approximately 10 million people were left without electricity (OCHA/UNCT, 2026). Daily power cuts have lasted between 12 and 20 hours, with some areas experiencing outages of 48–72 hours or more during grid-collapse events (ACAPS, 2026). Nighttime light reflectance data indicate a 38. 5% year-on-year reduction in light output across Cuba, with a 34. 6% drop in March 2026 alone (ACAPS/NASA, 2026). The effects of these energy and fuel constraints are wide-ranging and cross-cutting. With more than 80% of Cuba’s water pumping infrastructure electricity-dependent, prolonged blackouts are severely affecting access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene (IFRC, 2026). Close to one million people depend on water tanker trucks, many of which face operational limitations due to reduced fuel availability (OCHA, 2026). Solid waste collection has been significantly reduced in many areas, heightening public health risks. The health system is under sustained pressure: between January and March 2026, approximately 96, 387 surgical procedures were not carried out, including over 11, 000 involving children; all 46 blood banks have lost operational capacity; and cold chain failures are affecting the national immunisation programme and placing at risk the care of 32, 000 pregnant women, 2, 888 dialysis patients, and 28, 000 cancer patients undergoing oncological treatment (OCHA/UNCT, 2026; United Nations System in Cuba, 2026). In the social sphere, reduced access to food, essential services, and income has deepened existing vulnerabilities. As of 2024, 29% of the Cuban population were eating only two meals a day and 4% only one (DW, 2025). In the first quarter of 2026, 115 protest events were recorded nationwide – the highest number since monitoring began in 2018 – concentrated in March and linked to prolonged blackouts, food shortages, and medicine scarcity (ACLED, 2026). These dynamics reflect the convergence of compounding pressures: the energy and fuel constraints, the ongoing recovery needs in communities affected by Hurricane Melissa, and the persistent deteriorating health situation together place Cuban communities – particularly in the eastern provinces and those recently affected by arboviruses and hepatitis A outbreaks – at heightened and escalating risk.
Cuba | Hurricane Melissa – Operation Update #4 (MDRCU013)
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