Water shortage

EDITORIAL: Reports suggest that Pakistan is bracing for 25 percent water shortage during rabi season that has raised concerns over food security. There are both internal and external impediments to farm output in Pakistan. The internal impediments relate to the failure of successive administrations to increase the yield per hectare. The situation is complicated further by the widening gap between the yield of the relatively small number of rich farmers as opposed to around 80 percent of the farm community – operating below and/or subsistence level (12 acres) – that struggles to make ends meet from one crop year to the next. The input incentives and the farm credit at cheap rates has been largely utilised by the rich famers mainly because their poor counterparts do not have the knowledge or the required wherewithal to access these incentives. In addition, the rich farmers, due to their representation in the national and provincial assemblies, ensure that they pay an income tax well below that paid by the salaried class though this situation is likely to change as it is now a key International Monetary Fund (IMF) condition under the ongoing Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. Input costs are also on the rise and this is partly attributable to EFF that noted in October 2024 that “the government’s intervention in price setting, including for agricultural commodities, fuel products, power, and gas (biannual), combined with high tariff and non-tariff protection tilted the playing field in favour of selected groups or sector. ” Pakistan is one of the countries that are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change, ranking among the top ten most at-risk nations – a status that has negatively impacted farm output. This explains why last year during the rabi season there was no water shortage and yet the country suffered from a shortfall of more than 2 million tons of wheat. In this context, it is relevant to note that the government budgeted 21 billion rupees for 2026–27 under the ‘green component’ of agricultural subsidies. However, it qualified this funding as ‘indirectly favourable’ without defining its expected impact on the sector. This has raised concerns that the allocation may simply be an attempt to meet the International Monetary Fund’s conditions under the $1. 6 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The current crops under cultivation need to be revisited for two reasons. First, crops that require a lot of water need to be adjusted in line with the country’s available water resources and the output of influential industrialists reliant on farm output as raw material; for example, the sugar millers must be independently verified to ensure that claims of surplus allowing them to export are not followed by a shortfall in the market leading to imports. And secondly, there is a need to develop the cooperative sector, which is largely dormant, fragmented and/or overtaken by feudal interests as opposed to in India where it is successful and institutionalised. It is true that with the ongoing Middle East crisis, fertilizer prices have skyrocketed, as have energy and transport costs worldwide—and Pakistan is no exception. In effect during this rabi season output is expected to be well below target. However, there is a need to formulate and implement reforms that have proved successful in India, given that we share the same agro-climatic conditions. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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