Please refer to the attached file. Situation Highlights • On 24 July 2026, the Government confirmed that “El Niño 2026–2027 has taken shape, ” increasing the risk of severe drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion in Viet Nam. • NOAA Global Outlook3 (13 August 2026): El Niño is further strengthening, with a >90% chance of a “very strong” event continuing through winter 2026-27, and during the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2. 5°C or more). • Government planning scenarios: Under the high-risk scenario, El Niño reaches moderate-to-strong intensity and rainfall, and river flows could be 10–20 per cent below average. Under the very-high-risk scenario, El Niño becomes very strong and rainfall and river flows could be 20–40 per cent below average. These are probability-based scenarios, not certainties. • Priority regions and impact window: The South-Central Coast, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta are assessed as very-high-risk regions. The most critical impacts are expected from late 2026 to May 2027, including prolonged drought, extreme heat, water shortages, reduced river flows, depleted reservoirs and saltwater intrusion. • Children and essential services face rising risks from reduced safe water, food and livelihood insecurity, higher food prices and disruption to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services, health, nutrition, education, child protection and social protection services. • Children most at risk: Children under five; pregnant and breastfeeding women; children with disabilities; children from poor and ethnic minority households; migrant children; and children in remote, coastal, drought-prone and water-insecure communities. • No widespread El Niño-related humanitarian needs have been confirmed to date, making the current lead time critical for anticipatory action, risk communication, frontline readiness and continuity of essential services. • Maintain multi-hazard readiness: El Niño does not remove the risk of typhoons, extreme rainfall, flash floods, landslides and urban flooding. Preparedness must therefore remain multi-hazard. • Past El Niño events show the cost of delayed action and the value of preparedness: in 2015–2016, 2 million people lacked sufficient domestic water and 1. 1 million were food insecure; earlier forecasting and community action helped reduce losses in 2023–2024. Preparedness financing is needed ahead of the anticipated February–May 2027 peak-impact period.
UNICEF Viet Nam El Niño Early Warning Situation Report No. 1 (June –19 August 2026)
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