Country: South Sudan Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages South Sudan will remain one of the top food insecure countries globally and in the region through January 2027 due to conflict and El Niño-driven drought, seasonal floods, deteriorating economic conditions, and erosion of purchasing capacity. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will remain widespread in 23 counties through September while humanitarian assistance is expected to mitigate the severity to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in 13 counties amid further expansions in access, though gains in conflict-affected areas remain fragile. Some populations will face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in hard-to-reach areas of Akobo, Nyirol (Jonglei), Nasir, Ulang, and likely in Akoka (Upper Nile ) through at least September. Concern is also rising for extreme outcomes in Lafon amid additional reports of hunger-related deaths following crop failure. The arrival of the October-January main harvests will partially ease consumption gaps but not mitigate the severity given lean season food assistance ends by September; Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will expand to 31 counties across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Jonglei, southern Upper Nile, and parts of Unity, Warrap, Lakes, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. In the most severely conflict-affected areas (northcentral Jonglei, southern Upper Nile), minimal harvests are expected due to drought and conflict. A severe nutrition crisis persists with Critical to Extremely Critical levels in multiple parts of the country. Recent SMART surveys found elevated global acute malnutrition (GAM) in Guit of Unity (36. 2 percent), Akoka of Upper Nile (28. 8 percent), Abyei Administrative Area (Abyei; 23 percent), and Pibor of Greater Pibor Administrative Area (21. 6 percent) driven by conflict, displacement, extremely poor water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions, limited-to-no access to health and nutrition services, and disease outbreaks. A credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will persist in Akobo, Nyirol, Ulang, and Nasir through January. If conflict re-escalates and is sustained at similar or higher levels than in early 2026, isolating populations from accessing wild foods and assistance, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur. This report provides an update to the June 2026 to January 2027 Food Security Outlook and July 2026 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of August 31, 2026.
South Sudan: Food Security Outlook Update: Conflict and drought to drive Emergency and risk of Famine during harvest, August 2026 – January 2027
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