Somalia Weekly Weather Forecast – Valid From 15 to 21 October 2026

Please refer to the attached file. Review Summary: • Heavy rains fell over Bay, Gedo, Mudug, Hiraan and parts of Somaliland during 6–12 October. Baidoa recorded 146. 5 mm in 4 days, Bardheere 115. 5 mm, Qansax Dheere 107. 6 mm, Sheikh 100 mm and Hargeisa 86 mm in a single day. • By 12 October, 16 stations had already exceeded their October normal, including Baidoa (220. 0 mm, 163%), Bardheere (208. 5 mm, 255%), Galkacyo (124. 0 mm, 260%) and Hargeisa (86. 0 mm, 318%). • Satellite estimates (ARC2) show 100–500 mm over central and southern Somalia and the Somali region of Ethiopia since 1 October, more than four to six times the normal for the period. • Jowhar crossed its moderate flood-risk level on 12 October and its high flood-risk level on 13 October. Dollow peaked 4 cm below moderate on 12 October before falling sharply. • Communities in Galgaduud, Mudug, Sanaag and Dollow continued to report drought, heat and livestock losses during 1–7 October, while callers in Bay, Lower Shabelle and Kismayo reported good rain and crop planting. Forecast Highlight: • Light to moderate rains are expected over central and north-eastern Somalia. Moderate rainfall of 50–100 mm is forecast over most of Xarardheere and Burtinle districts and about half of Jariiban district, with localized heavy rainfall of 100–150 mm near the coast in Xarardheere Light rainfall of 10–30 mm is expected over Hiraan and Middle Shabelle • Light rains are expected over most parts of the Juba River catchment whereas light to moderate rains are likely over Shabelle River catchment • Jowhar remains above its high flood-risk level (5. 36 m, 14 cm below bankfull). A new rise is moving downstream from Deefow (+0. 76 m today) and Belet Weyne (+0. 50 m today) and is expected to reach Jowhar during the week. Breakage flooding between Jowhar and Balcad is likely to continue • The 10-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast (14–24 October) indicates heavy rainfall of 100–150 mm over Bulo Burto, Jalalaqsi and Jowhar districts, an upside flood risk for Jowhar and Balcad towards 22–24 October • Dry and hot conditions are forecast over most parts of Jubaland with very high maximum temperatures of 40–45°C over parts of Middle Juba, Lower Juba and Sablaale

Read full story on Reliefweb