Country: Somalia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages FEWS NET still assesses a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in southern Somalia from October through January 2027. Under the most likely scenario, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), are expected through January 2027 in the Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones; riverine livelihood zones (except Lower Shabelle); the Southern Agropastoral Livelihood Zone (Hiiraan); and multiple IDP settlements. However, if extreme, widespread flooding materializes, extensive agricultural losses and prolonged isolation of communities from markets and lifesaving services would likely lead to Famine (IPC Phase 5). Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), are likely to persist in highly cropping-dependent areas and emerge in riverine areas from October, as anticipated flooding negatively affects agricultural activities. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also expected in other agropastoral areas with higher livestock holdings. Additionally, FEWS NET is now projecting Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September in the Sorghum High Potential Livelihood Zone of Bay and Gedo regions due to better-than-expected xagaa rains and harvests. However, such improvements will be short-lived, and deterioration to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected from October. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in northern and central pastoral areas, with some households likely facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). High food prices, low livestock holdings, and limited milk availability will constrain food access, despite expected improvements in water and pasture availability during the upcoming deyr rains. From October to January, FEWS NET now projects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will emerge in the Northern Inland Pastoral Livelihood Zone of Sanaag and Sool regions based on new information indicating relatively higher conception rates and milk production prospects than previously anticipated. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) remain among the most food-insecure populations in Somalia. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), are expected in many major IDP settlements. Repeated displacements, high food prices, and heightened competition for increasingly limited income-earning opportunities will severely constrain food access.
Somalia Food Security Outlook Update August 2026 – January 2027: Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists despite better-than-anticipated xagaa rains
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