Please refer to the attached file. HIGHLIGHTS Heavy rains are intensifying across Eastern Africa, with above-average rainfall already recorded in parts of Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi. In contrast, parts of Ethiopia and South Sudan continue to face worsening drought conditions after below-average rainfall between May and October 2026. Flooding is already causing widespread humanitarian impacts, including displacement, damage to homes and infrastructure, and heightened disease risks. Somalia has recorded some of the most severe early impacts of the October rains, with nearly 170, 000 people affected across several regions. Preparedness efforts are underway, but significant funding and response gaps remain. SITUATION OVERVIEW The October-December 2026 rains have started strongly across Eastern Africa, but their temporal and geographic distribution remains uneven. In early October, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) reported wetter- to much-wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi and Kenya, with more than 100 mm falling in ten days in south-eastern Ethiopia and neighbouring Somalia. Parts of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Tanzania remained drier than average. Overall, the pattern matches the El Niño-driven, above-average seasonal outlook. The rains should improve water availability and crop conditions, but they also raise the risk of flash and riverine flooding, particularly in the Juba, Shabelle and Tana river basins. Preliminary reports already point to flooding, displacement, infrastructure damage and heightened disease risks in Burundi, Kenya, Somalia and South Sudan. With above-normal rainfall forecast through December, the risk of further flooding and rising humanitarian needs remains high, and rainfall, river levels and impacts require close monitoring. Across the region, the emerging transition from drought towards wetter conditions raises the prospect of overlapping drought recovery and flood exposure before affected communities have restored their livelihoods, according to the the October Africa Drought Watch.
Somalia: Eastern Africa: El Niño Status and Humanitarian Impact Flash Update No. 1 (12 November 2026)
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