PNG: CARE International Emergency Situation Report # 1 – Pacific & Timor-Leste El Niño Drought 2026

Countries: Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Vanuatu Source: CARE Please refer to the attached file. 1. Executive Summary As the 2026-27 El Niño event intensifies, drier and drought conditions have impacted much of the Pacific region. More than 6-million people across the Pacific and Timor-Leste are now affected by drought. CARE is currently developing response strategies across the region to target growing needs in areas of WASH, Protection, and Food Security, Nutrition and Livelihoods. The current regional funding target is USD2. 44million for an initial 9-month response targeting 62, 000 people. 2. Situation Overview Across the Pacific and Timor-Leste more than 6 million people have been affected by El Niño-induced drought conditions. Worsening food insecurity, water insecurity, and protection risks are leading to a deepening of poverty, increased health and hygiene risks, and heightened gender-based violence (GBV) exposure. The 2026-27 El Niño event is projected to be the strongest ever recorded. The latest relative Niño3. 4 index value for the week ending 30 August 2026 is +2. 45 °C, well above the El Niño threshold (+0. 80 °C) and warmed by around 0. 5 °C over the prior fortnight. The strength of this El Niño, in addition to the typical life cycle of an El Niño, suggests this El Niño may persist into the southern hemisphere autumn 2027. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) notes the rate of ocean warming observed in the six months to September 2026 is unprecedented in the historical record, with peak SST anomalies potentially exceeding +3. 0°C. 1 The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has characterised the 2026 event as “potentially historic” and has emphasised that El Niño’s high predictability creates a clear obligation for timely anticipatory action. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. As of 30 August 2026, the weekly IOD index is +0. 22 °C. After three-weeks above the positive IOD threshold (+0. 4 °C), the index has returned to neutral. Risks of a positive IOD to develop during the southern hemisphere spring.

Read full story on Reliefweb