No time for climate complacency

EDITORIAL: The latest assessment by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), based on 45 years of climate data from 1981 to 2025, should serve as a wake-up call for our policymakers. Pakistan’s climate is changing significantly; but more importantly, it is becoming increasingly unpredictable and uneven across regions. The country is warming, with mean temperatures rising by 0. 21°C per decade and minimum temperatures increasing even faster, by 0. 26°C per decade. The faster rise in night-time temperatures is particularly concerning, as hotter nights leave the human body less able to recover from daytime heat and can increase health risks, especially for vulnerable communities. The report also challenges the simplistic assumption that climate change merely means Pakistan is becoming drier. Although annual precipitation has declined by about 7. 40 millimetres per decade, the decrease is not statistically significant. The more worrying trend is that rainfall is becoming less dependable. Some regions are receiving substantially more monsoon rain, while northern areas have experienced declining precipitation in several seasons. The contrast between drought and deluge is striking. During the winter of 2024-25, for example, Pakistan recorded a national rainfall deficit of 67 percent. Yet only three years earlier, the 2022 monsoon brought rainfall as much as 450 percent above average in parts of the south, contributing to catastrophic floods that affected 33 million people and submerged roughly one-third of the country. Such extremes underscore the growing volatility of Pakistan’s hydroclimate. This volatility has serious implications for agriculture and water security. Farmers depend on predictable rainfall and irrigation schedules, while changing temperatures and precipitation patterns can disrupt planting seasons, reduce yields and increase irrigation requirements. In the north, rising temperatures are accelerating snow and glacier melt, contributing to the formation and expansion of glacial lakes and increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), while also altering the timing of river flows and potentially reducing water availability later in the year, when irrigation and hydropower needs remain high. At the same time, groundwater depletion is adding another layer of risk, particularly in already water-stressed areas. Yet water management remains largely focused on short-term shortages and post-disaster responses rather than long-term climate resilience. Extreme heat is another growing threat. Some areas of southern Punjab, Sindh and western Baluchistan are already experiencing more than 100 days a year with temperatures above 40°C. Meanwhile, nights with minimum temperatures above 30°C are increasing rapidly in parts of Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan. These conditions will place additional pressure on public health, electricity supplies, labour productivity and household incomes. The response cannot be limited to emergency relief after floods, droughts or heat waves. Pakistan urgently needs a comprehensive climate-adaptation strategy, backed by resources and, above all, political will. Climate risk must become part of mainstream economic planning rather than remaining the responsibility of environmental agencies alone. Every major road, housing scheme, agricultural project and water-management decision should be assessed against the climate Pakistan is likely to face in the coming decades—not the climate of the past. The PMD has provided the evidence; policymakers must now provide the response. The country cannot control climate change on its own, but it can reduce its vulnerability to its consequences. The cost of adaptation may be substantial, but the cost of inaction—in lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and economic losses—will be far greater. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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