Country: Niger Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Diffa and Tillabéri regions, as well as northwestern Tahoua, from September 2026 through January 2027. Conflict continues to drive population displacement and the abandonment of agricultural land, significantly reducing the livelihoods and incomes of poor households and displaced persons. In these insecurity-affected areas, the lean season is prolonged due to delayed rainfall. Limited availability of own-produced food and insufficient income among poor and displaced households constrain their access to markets. Food consumption gaps continue despite the use of negative coping strategies, including purchasing food on credit and excessive borrowing of food or money. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist in September in agricultural and agropastoral areas unaffected by conflict. Given the dry spells that delayed crop development, new harvests and associated income remain limited in September, with minimal impact on improving food security during this period. However, the ongoing harvests are providing poor households with sufficient income-earning opportunities to meet their food needs. They are unable, however, to meet non-food expenditures without resorting to negative coping strategies, such as excessive borrowing. Food availability and agricultural income are expected to improve sufficiently beginning in October to allow most households to transition to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes as harvests become more widespread. The delayed onset of the agropastoral season, combined with dry spells and insecurity-related impacts on access to agricultural land, points to below-average agricultural and pastoral production in some areas of Niger. Agricultural and pastoral production is expected to remain below average, with particularly significant deficits across all pastoral areas and in the agropastoral areas of Diffa, Tillabéri, and Tahoua, where the combined effects of El Niño-related weather shocks and insecurity are most pronounced. Civil insecurity remains high in conflict-affected areas, with an increase in security incidents, particularly in Tahoua, Diffa, and Dosso. According to ACLED, 382 incidents were recorded between January and August 2026, compared with 365 incidents during the same period in 2025, representing a 5 percent increase. This deterioration continues to drive population displacement, with the number of displaced persons reaching 1. 13 million in August 2026, compared with 934, 173 in August 2025, an increase of 20 percent, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Markets remain generally well supplied, although supply remains below average in insecurity-affected areas due to disruptions to trade flows. In these areas, sustained demand due to the continued presence of displaced populations is keeping prices elevated, with millet prices 26 to 36 percent above average in Bankilaré, Téra, and N’Guigmi, where food access conditions remain most severely deteriorated.
Niger – Key Message Update: Rainfall deficits have negatively affected agricultural and pastoral production, September 2026 – January 2027
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