Mozambique Food Security Outlook: Conflict, slow recovery from floods, and dry conditions constrain food access, August 2026 – January 2027

Country: Mozambique Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027 in conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula as persistent activity by non-state armed groups (NSAG) increases population displacement and disrupts livelihoods and markets, constraining food access. The onset of the lean season in November will further reduce household food stocks and purchasing power, while insecurity may trigger additional displacement, including in Niassa. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected where sustained food assistance is available, while areas less affected by conflict will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist from August to September across most southern and central areas, supported by remaining food stocks and second season production. However, localized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October to Januaryas food stocks decline amid high staple food prices and constrained purchasing power. Poor households will increasingly rely on coping strategies, including reducing meal size and frequency, consuming wild foods, atypical labor migration, and seeking support from relatives. Second season production is providing food in flood-affected areas of southern and central Mozambique. Harvesting is expected to continue into November, extending the availability of food and income. Average to above-average rainfall in early and mid-August has improved soil moisture and supported crop development. A very strong El Niño is expected to increase drought risks, particularly in southern and central Mozambique, through a delayed, below-average 2026/27 rainy season and above-average temperatures. Poor crop establishment, reduced pasture and water availability, and weak agricultural labor demand are likely to further constrain access to food and income, particularly in areas affected by weather shocks in early 2026.

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