Country: Madagascar Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Between June and September 2026, an early deterioration of outcomes to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected in Toliara II and Amboasary where losses of cassava and sweet potato are worst, as poor households’ food stocks are likely to deplete atypically early as a result. In most areas of concern in the Grand Sud, tuber harvests and rice prices below last year’s are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during this period. Through September**, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in a large part of the Grand Sud, Grand Sud-Est, and in several districts in the east and west that were affected by cyclones Fytia and Gezani. ** The majority of the country remains in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). In areas of concern, below-normal harvests, reduced incomes, and low dietary diversity limit food access for poor households, although increased availability of rice and tuber harvests will likely mitigate deficits for two months. From October 2026 to January 2027, outcomes are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the Grand Sud due to early depletion of stocks, the seasonal increase in prices, and the likely delayed start of the 2026/27 rainy season associated with El Niño. Poor households in the area will likely face significant food consumption gaps and intensify debt, asset sales, migration, and consumption of wild foods in order to reduce these gaps. FEWS NET estimates that 1. 5-1. 99 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance between June 2026 and January 2027, with needs expected to peak in southern Madagascar during the lean season from October 2026 to January 2027.
Madagascar – Food Security Outlook : An early lean season and El Niño challenge food security in the Grand South, June 2026 – January 2027
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