Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist across the Southern Lowlands, Senqu River Valley, and Mountains through May 2027, with an increasing number of poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the December to February lean season. Having depleted their own-produced stocks from the below-average 2026 harvest atypically early, poor households are market reliant ahead of the lean season, while below-average income from self-employment, agricultural labor, and remittances limits purchasing power. Below-average 2027 production under ongoing strong El Niño conditions are expected to limit improvement from the March and April harvests, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist across much of the Northern Lowlands and Foothills through May 2027, supported by relatively better food stocks, below-average staple food prices, and seasonal income from agricultural labor. However, some households are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the December to February lean season as market dependence increases. El Niño conditions are expected to drive below-average rainfall during the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season, with prolonged dry spells and soil moisture deficits at critical crop development stages reducing 2027 green and main harvests, particularly maize. The resulting losses in own production and agricultural labor income are expected to sustain poor households’ market reliance and constrain food access, given Lesotho’s structural dependence on markets and imported food. Between 100, 000-249, 000 people in Lesotho are expected to be in need of food assistance, with needs expected to peak during the December-February lean season. Needs are expected to gradually decrease as the lean season ends in February and the green harvest begins in March. The full effects of the El Niño event are expected to emerge gradually, with the most severe food security impacts likely to materialize beyond May, peaking during the late 2027 to early 2028 lean season. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 23, 2026.
Lesotho Food Security Outlook October 2026 – May 2027: Depleted stocks and below-average harvest to sustain Stressed outcomes
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