Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through May 2027 across South, El-Nabatieh, Baalbek–El-Hermel, Akkar, and parts of North and Bekaa. Ongoing insecurity-related livelihood disruptions in the south, limited income-earning opportunities, and high food and fuel costs will continue to constrain household purchasing power and food access among poor Lebanese households, Syrian refugees, and internally displaced populations. Insecurity continues to disrupt livelihoods and restrict recovery in southern Lebanon, particularly within and near the Yellow Line, despite lower levels of hostilities. Intermittent but persistent Israeli airstrikes, demolitions, movement restrictions, and military presence near the border are limiting access to agricultural land, reducing seasonal income-earning opportunities, and constraining the return and livelihood recovery of insecurity-affected households. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through May in Beirut, Mount Lebanon, and parts of North and Bekaa, reflecting locally improved conditions since June. Reduced hostilities and displacement since the peak escalation period, along with improved market and livelihood conditions, have supported gradual improvements in food security outcomes. However, weak economic conditions, below-average labor demand, and elevated living costs are expected to continue limiting household purchasing power, particularly among poor households and Syrian refugees, while markets remain broadly supplied and functional countrywide. FEWS NET assesses that 1. 0-1. 49 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance through May, with needs expected to peak from January to February. Assistance needs are expected to remain highest among insecurity-affected households in southern Lebanon, internally displaced populations, Syrian refugees, and poor households facing persistent income deficits, while humanitarian response capacity remains constrained by funding shortfalls and access challenges. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 23, 2026.
Lebanon Food Security Outlook Update: Insecurity and weak livelihood recovery sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, October 2026 – May 2027
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