IMF review: Pakistan expected to meet all targets, says AHL

Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all seven Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) set under its ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, ahead of the Fund’s upcoming review later this month, said Arif Habib Limited on Saturday. “Based on publicly available data, we believe Pakistan is on track to meet nearly all seven QPCs, with one data point yet to be disclosed, ” said the brokerage house in its report titled Pakistan’s Economic Outlook. “As QPCs represent the programme’s hard benchmarks, meeting them would pave the way for a smooth review with limited risk of waivers or major hiccups, ” it added. The staff mission is scheduled to visit Pakistan next month to discuss the fourth review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme and the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The Fund’s Executive Board completed the prior review round in May, releasing roughly $1. 1 billion under the EFF and $220 million under the RSF, taking cumulative disbursements under both programs to about $4. 8 billion. What makes this review notable, as per AHL, is timing rather than money. “More importantly, the upcoming review is less about securing new commitments and more about demonstrating consistency in implementation, in our view. “It is also the first full review since the Moody’s and S&P upgrades and Pakistan’s debut Panda Bond. A clean review would reinforce the view that improving credit ratings and market access are reflecting genuine progress in reforms—not simply running ahead of the fundamentals, ” read the report. However, meeting targets has not always been Pakistan’s strength. The Federal Board of Revenue missed its fiscal 2026 collection target by Rs1. 1 trillion, against an initial goal of Rs14. 1 trillion rupees. AHL, in its report, noted that a repeat shortfall “would squeeze the FY27 fiscal math. ” That backdrop matters because the brokerage forecasts show the fiscal deficit widening in FY27. “We expect the fiscal deficit to widen to 3. 9% of GDP in FY27f, from 2. 6% in FY26. .. while the primary surplus remains positive at 2. 0% of GDP. ” Business Recorder previously reported that the IMF mission, during its upcoming visit, will assess Pakistan’s economic performance for the January-June 2026 period and initiate negotiations for the release of the next tranche under the EFF, as well as RSF. It will also examine tax collection, as well as reforms in the energy sector and progress on the privatisation programme. After the visit, IMF staff and the Pakistani authorities are expected to reach a staff-level agreement (SLA); the agreement will be subject to approval of the IMF’s Executive Board. Upon approval, Pakistan will have access to about $1 billion under the EFF and $200 million under the RSF.

Read full story on Business Recorder