Country: Colombia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to continue through January 2027 in La Guajira and Chocó; Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes remain most likely in much of the rest of the country. In La Guajira, deepening rainfall and soil moisture deficits are constraining water access and agricultural and livestock production, resulting in widespread food consumption gaps among poor Indigenous and agropastoral households. In Chocó, poor households in earthquake-affected areas are increasingly relying on unsustainable coping strategies in the face of substantial asset losses and disruptions to livelihoods and markets, while many poor Indigenous and Afro-Colombian households in remote riverine areas continue to struggle with adequate food access due to high transportation costs and intermittent restrictions on movement, access to markets, and livelihoods. In the rest of the country, while pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to persist, most poor households are likely to be able to sustain minimally adequate diets. However, constrained incomes and persistently high prices are expected to limit their ability to meet other essential household needs. In September, broadly below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures associated with El Niño triggered an expansion of areas facing agricultural stress, particularly in La Guajira, Cesar, Atlántico, Tolima, Cundinamarca, and Casanare. In La Guajira, hot and dry conditions are reducing water and pasture availability, limiting yields, and weakening livestock productivity, while declining river levels, elevated wildfire risk, localized flooding from short, intense precipitation events, and forecast well-above-average temperatures, are expected to cause localized agricultural losses and reduced wild food availability elsewhere in Colombia, including in the Amazon, most severely impacting rural communities that rely on subsistence production. While government-led earthquake reconstruction efforts have begun, recovery has been slow and variable for the more than 778, 000 people affected, particularly in Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Risaralda, and Quindío. In rural Chocó, livelihood disruptions and asset losses have led to widening food consumption gaps among the worst-affected poor households, especially in Afro-Colombian communities that already face more limited food access due to weather- and/or conflict-related shocks. In urban areas, loss of dwellings and livelihoods has increased the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, since worst-affected households have expanded use of both sustainable and unsustainable coping strategies to reduce or close food consumption gaps as incomes have dropped substantially and expenditures on non-food essentials increased. In relatively better-off departments such as Valle del Cauca, Risaralda, and Quindío, negative impacts to income and assets have deteriorated coping capacity among some previously food-secure populations. Through August, rising and highly variable food prices continued to contribute to increased annual headline inflation, which reached 6. 24 percent. Key staple prices remained relatively stable in August: In Bogotá, rice was broadly stable and slightly below both last year and the five-year average, while maize meal and pasta declined slightly month-on-month but remained moderately above their five-year averages. While a relatively strong Colombian peso has partly mitigated import costs for agricultural inputs and grains, domestic food price dynamics are increasingly driven by product- and region-specific weather shocks and resulting supply constraints, exacerbated by increased transportation costs. Rainfall anomalies have severely reduced yields for certain crops and limited pasture regeneration, driving up the cost of items such as green beans, which increased 84. 39 percent year-on-year in Cúcuta, and local cheese ( queso costeño ), which saw price increases across 24 major wholesale markets. Significant regional price disparity also persisted, reflecting differences in proximity to harvesting hubs, varying supply chain lengths, and localized weather impacts; for example, year-to-date mango prices surged over 400 percent in Medellín while remaining stable in Barranquilla. In contrast, seasonal harvests supported temporary price declines for some items, including carrots. In conflict-affected areas, particularly in areas linked to illicit economies, intermittent displacement, confinement, and movement restrictions are expected to continue disrupting trade, agricultural activities, and access to informal income sources, resulting in pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Chocó, Antioquia, and southern Bolívar, armed confrontations, insecurity, and intermittent disruptions to transportation networks will continue to limit access to markets, agricultural fields, and income-generating activities among poor households, including in Afro-Colombian communities. As the new administration continues to reshape security policy and intensifies operations against organized armed groups (OAGs), state forces remain likely to sustain pressure on OAG structures. In response, retaliatory actions by OAGs, including attacks using explosive drones or improvised explosive devices, are expected to persist in affected areas.
Colombia – Key Message Update (September 2026 – January 2027): Negative impacts to livelihoods persist amid erratic rainfall and earthquake aftereffects
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