Please refer to the attached file. Contributors: Katongo Seyuba (SIPRI) and Dr Thor Olav Iversen (NUPI) Series editors: Dr Cedric de Coning (NUPI) and Dr Florian Krampe (SIPRI) Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis. Climate change is undermining livelihoods in Somalia and increasing the risks of local tensions and conflict over diminishing water resources and pasture lands. Droughts, floods and violent conflict remain key drivers of displacement in Somalia. Internally displaced people (IDPs) are particularly vulnerable to insecurity, climate shocks and repeated displacement. Conflict severely limits the ability of communities to cope with and adapt to the effects of climate change. Between April 2025 and March 2026 an increase in the number of violence and security incidents was recorded, many in areas severely hit by drought. The severe impacts of droughts and floods place an additional strain on Somalia’s already limited state capacity to provide essential services and relief to its population. The United Nations Security Council recognizes the adverse effects of climate change and natural disasters on Somalia’s humanitarian situation, security and stability. It has called for comprehensive risk assessments and long-term strategies to support stabilization and resilience-building. Integrating environmental and climate considerations into security and development strategies remains crucial for Somalia’s transition towards a more resilient governance structure. The FGS and Somalia’s Federal Member States (FMSs), with assistance from the UN system, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), donors and partners, should work closely to address climate-related security risks. Recommended actions The UN system, donors and Somalia’s partners should continue to support the capacities of the FGS and the FMSs to anticipate, track and respond to the effects of climate change on agricultural production, both arable and livestock, and on food security and livelihoods. The FGS and FMSs also need more support for adaptation, resilience-building and the fostering of gender-sensitive climate-resilient livelihood activities. Addressing new and protracted displacement remains a priority in Somalia, both for immediate humanitarian needs and to build peace. To facilitate the adoption of durable solutions, actors and organizations working across the humanitarian–development–peace nexus should continue to address short-term humanitarian needs in host communities and use area-based approaches to build longer-term resilience in Somalia. Greater efforts should also be made to protect IDPs from heightened exposure to extreme weather events and insecurity. The UN country team, with technical support from the UN climate security and environmental adviser, should continue to support training for relevant Somali civilian and security institutions and strengthen their capacity to analyse and mitigate climate-related security risks. There is also a need for continued support to strengthen community-level conflict-monitoring systems to allow them to accurately capture where and how climate-related pressure may be contributing to or worsening conflict. Responses to climate change in Somalia remain reactive and reliant on emergency and humanitarian responses. There is thus a need to move from emergency response towards long-term planning and implementation for climate-resilient development. Efforts to address climate change, including climate, peace and security interventions, should also seek to strengthen state institutions at subnational and national levels, as well as build trust and cooperation between communities and the state.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia (November 2026)
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