Country: Chad Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes ongoing in September will persist through January 2027 in Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi Est provinces. Refugees continue to arrive from Sudan, with 16, 172 new arrivals between mid-August and mid-September, bringing the total to 959, 126 since April 2023. Very severe lean season conditions persist, resulting in significant food consumption gaps, with no improvement in agricultural labor opportunities or the availability of wild foods among host populations. Refugees continue to depend heavily on markets and food assistance. Pressure on host population livelihoods is increasing at a time when food and income sources are highly precarious due to poor season progression. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue through January 2027 in Lac Province. Rainfall deficits persisted through September, while security conditions continue to deteriorate, driving further population displacement. Deteriorating livelihoods, particularly fishing and livestock production, are driving declining incomes. Food consumption gaps, coupled with intensive sales of productive assets, are observed among internally displaced persons and host populations. Improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is still expected between October and January 2027 in Wayi department, but improvements are likely to begin in November rather than October due to delayed harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in September 2026 in Kanem and northern Barh-El-Gazel due to the significant deterioration in food security conditions. In this pastoral area, pasture regeneration had not yet occurred as of September 20. Market-dependent households continue to face high livestock maintenance costs and declining income from most sources. Weak purchasing power is driving households to engage in atypical sales of productive assets. Harvests, which were expected to improve food consumption beginning in October, will be delayed until November. Atypically severe lean season conditions prevail in September. Prolonged dry spells in agricultural areas led to replanting after crop desiccation forced producers to abandon fields. In the pastoral zone, conditions are particularly concerning, as transhumant pastoralists had not reached their seasonal grazing areas as of August 31 due to shortages of water and pasture. Livestock body conditions in the area have not fully recovered. Agropastoralists are selling more small ruminants and poultry than is typical to meet their income needs. Conflict, combined with the influx of Sudanese refugees, persists as one of the main drivers of food insecurity in Chad. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), 24 events occurred countrywide between August 12 and September 11. These events affected 131, 790 people and resulted in 20 deaths. The eastern provinces hosting refugees and Lac Province accounted for half of all events, recording five and seven conflict events, respectively. These conflicts destroy food stocks and force displacement, disrupt livelihoods, hinder cross-border trade, and disrupt markets, leading to supply disruptions and atypical price increases. Ahead of the harvests, cereal prices are increasing atypically in markets. Millet prices increased by an average of 13 percent at the end of August compared with the end of July. The sharpest increases were recorded in the eastern provinces experiencing an influx of refugees, where the price per kilogram of millet, the main staple cereal, increased by 41 percent, 46 percent, and 39 percent in the markets of Abéché (Ouaddaï), Goz Beida (Sila), and Guereda (Wadi Fira), respectively. According to key informants, rising fuel prices and speculative stockholding by traders are driving these sharp increases, as they anticipate poor production and higher prices in the coming months.
Chad – Key Message Update: Severe lean season conditions persist in Lac and highly food-insecure eastern provinces, September 2026 – January 2027
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