Afghanistan: Weekly Market Report: Issue 316: Week 4 – October 2026

Please refer to the attached file. Key Highlights Market Overview During the 4th week of October, national average prices showed generally modest week-on-week movements, while several commodities remained elevated compared with last year and their three-year averages. Rice and cooking oil prices continued to face supply-side pressures amid disruptions to regional trade routes and slower imports. In contrast, pulses remained relatively affordable, supported by increased domestic availability, local production and imports from Central Asia, while restricted export opportunities and weak demand contributed to lower prices. Fuel and fertilizer costs remained elevated, adding pressure to agricultural production, transportation and household purchasing power. Meanwhile, limited demand for improved seeds and animal feed, alongside increased local availability, contributed to lower prices for these inputs. Food Categories: National average food prices recorded limited week-on-week movements, although notable annual and longer-term price disparities persisted across commodities. • Wheat and wheat flour prices increased marginally during the week and show a significant increase year-on-year with wheat grain prices up by 12%, high-price wheat flour up by 7% and low-price up by 11%. • Rice prices also show a marginal increase from last week (Palawi) and a significant increase from last year, with Palawi rice 19% higher and Sholae rice 32% higher than last year. Moreover, both varieties remained 20% above their three-year averages. • Weekly movements in cooking oil, pulses, sugar, salt and bread remained limited. However, cooking oil and sugar prices remain 14% and 11% higher than last year, while pulses and bread show declines. • Vegetables prices show a slight weekly increase with tomato prices up by 9. 8%, potato 2. 7% and onion by 2. 6%. However, year-on-year comparison show notably higher prices of potato while tomato and onion show declines. Non-Food Categories: Terms of Trade (ToT): Purchasing power remained constraint for both labour-dependent households and pastoralists, as declining income and higher prices limit their access to food. • Unskilled Labour ToT: The nominal unskilled labour ToT marginally declined to 9. 7 kg of low-price wheat flour, representing a 15% decline from last year and 13% below the three-year average. The continued deterioration indicates sustained pressure on labour income relative to food prices. • Labour Availability and Wages: Unskilled labour availability remained at 2. 0 days per week, 13% below last year and 20% below the three-year average. Unskilled labour wages also declined by 5% year-on-year, contributing to a 26% decline in the real unskilled labour ToT compared with last year and 31% below the three-year average. • Pastoralist ToT: A pastoralist could exchange a one-year-old female sheep for 257 kg of low-price wheat flour, 13% below last year’s level and 8% below the three-year average, indicating continued pressure on the purchasing power of livestock-dependent households. • Fertilizers and agricultural input prices show marginal weekly changes. However, year-on-year show mix movements; DAP and urea remained 9% and 22% higher than last year, respectively. Meanwhile, improved seed and animal feed prices remained below last year, by 9% and 6%, respectively.

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