Country: Somalia Source: World Food Programme Please refer to the attached file. A very strong El Niño is likely for late 2026. Its strength matches/surpasses the severe 2023 and 1997 seasons Somalia’s two worst flood benchmarks. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the second driver of heavy Deyr rains, has stayed at the edge of its positive threshold (+0. 41°C, 9 August) for three weeks and there is high likelihood to tip over and stay positive through the season. The GHACOF74 outlook issued 18 August confirms a wetter-than-normal Deyr, a >90% likelihood of exceeding 400 mm over parts of central-southern Somalia. However, forecasts tell us the season will be wet, but not how severe. This analysis therefore benchmarks four past El Niño seasons, from mild (2015) to worst case (1997) as a severity scale, as rainfall and river levels data come in, they show which past season 2026 is tracking and figures shift within the range of these benchmark seasons.
Somalia El Niño 2026: Flood Exposure & Preparedness Analysis | Deyr Season, October – December 2026
RELATED ARTICLES
