Country: World Source: World Food Programme Please refer to the attached file. HORN OF AFRICA Dryness After a favorable onset, rainfall weakened during April and May, reducing seasonal performance across parts of Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and eastern Kenya. Somalia remains the primary area of concern, as below-average Gu rainfall raises the risk of a second consecutive poor season, which could have serious repercussions for an already critical food security situation. EAST AFRICA Dryness Favorable early-season conditions are giving way to increasing dryness concerns, with forecasts indicating below-average June–September rainfall across parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and neighboring areas during a critical stage of the growing season. SOUTH & SE ASIA Dryness Flood The monsoon is underway across the region, with drier-than average conditions affecting much of South Asia. Forecasts indicate that these conditions are likely to persist over the coming months, in line with typical El Niño patterns. In mainland Southeast Asia, rainfall remains uneven; however, forecasts generally point to a favorable agriculture season with a potential risk of flooding events. LATAM Dryness The onset of the current season is consistent with expected El Niño patterns, characterized by drier-than-average conditions across the region, with seasonal forecasts indicating that these conditions are likely to continue in the coming months. Despite a potentially less active Atlantic hurricane season, impactful storms remain possible. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook El Niño is underway. There is a 63% likelihood that a very strong El Niño will occur between November and January. WESTERN AFRICA Dryness Seasonal conditions remain generally favorable across much of the Gulf of Guinea, while forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall across Sahel during the core June-September rainy season.
World: Global Seasonal Outlook (June 2026)
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