Madagascar – Food Security Outlook: Prolonged Crisis expected across the Grand South as recovery from 2025/26 lags, October 2026 – May 2027

Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across the Grand South through May 2027, as poor households face lingering impacts from the poor 2025/26 agricultural season, including depleted food stocks, high indebtedness, and weakened livelihoods. Below-average rainfall, limited seed access, and reduced agricultural labor opportunities will continue to constrain food production, incomes, and household purchasing power, and stall livelihood recovery. Below-average harvests are expected to limit seasonal improvements in food security from March through May. Anticipated El Niño-related rainfall deficits and reduced area planted will constrain crop production, limiting household food stock replenishment and livelihood recovery. The full effects of the El Niño event are expected to emerge gradually, with the most severe food security impacts likely to materialize beyond May, peaking during the 2027/28 lean season. In the Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to predominate, although Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in isolated districts. Declining rice stocks, below-normal vanilla income, rainfall deficits, and reduced labor opportunities are expected to increase reliance on cassava, wild foods, migration, and market purchases. Income from cloves, lychees, and off-season rice harvests will provide temporary support, but remote areas with poor market access and below-average production prospects will remain of greatest concern. Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase through the peak of the lean season in February 2027, when an estimated 2. 0-2. 49 million people will be in need of assistance, before declining seasonally with the arrival of harvests. Rising market dependence, elevated staple food prices, and persistent inflation are expected to erode purchasing power through February. While harvests and seasonal labor opportunities are expected to improve food access from March onward, below-average production and continued livelihood recovery challenges are likely to sustain significant humanitarian needs through May. The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 21, 2026.

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