Somalia: Shabelle River: Climate Update and Riverine Flood Risk Advisory (Digniin) – Deyr 2026 Flood Advisory No. 2 (13 October 2026)

Please refer to the attached file. Observed Rainfall Heavy rains have fallen over central Somalia and the lower part of the Shabelle catchment in Ethiopia since the start of October. Satellite estimates for 1–11 October show above 100 mm over Hiraan, Galgaduud and the Gode–Kelafo area of Ethiopia, more than two times the normal amount for this time of year. The Ethiopian highlands, where the Shabelle starts, received less, about 25–75 mm. River level At Jowhar, the level rose by a further 0. 20 m overnight to 5. 37 m today, almost 1 m in 48 hours (4. 38 m on 11 October). It is now 12 cm above the high flood risk level (5. 25 m) and only 13 cm below bankfull (5. 50 m). Levels are rising along the whole river: Belet Weyne rose by 0. 38 m to 3. 98 m and Bulo Burti by 0. 38 m to 3. 90 m, both still about 2. 5 m below their moderate flood risk level (6. 50 m). Upstream at Deefow, near the Ethiopian border, the level rose by a further 0. 45 m to 2. 87 m, confirming that more water is coming from Ethiopia. Moderate rains are forecast: 50–100 mm over most of Hiraan and Middle Shabelle (Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jalalaqsi and Jowhar), with isolated falls of 100–150 mm. Over the Shabelle catchment in Ethiopia, rains will be lighter (mostly 10–50 mm), with only isolated areas getting 100 mm or more. Today, mostly light rain is expected along the river, with up to 50 mm just north of Belet Weyne and heavy rain (50–200 mm) along the Lower Shabelle coast. With the river already above the high flood risk level at Jowhar, more water arriving from Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti and 50–100 mm of local rain forecast this week, the level at Jowhar is likely to reach bankfull (5. 50 m) in the coming days. Flooding through the open river breakages between Jowhar and Balcad is likely to continue and spread into nearby farms and villages. Levels at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti will keep rising but are expected to stay below the moderate flood risk level this week.

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