Please refer to the attached Infographic. OVERVIEW Eastern Africa is facing heightened humanitarian risks as El Niño conditions, present since June 2026, are expected to strengthen into a potentially very strong event and persist through late 2026 and early 2027. El Niño has two contrasting effects on Eastern Africa’s climate: drier-than-normal conditions in northern and western areas during the June to September (JJAS) season, already observed in affected areas, and wetter-than-normal conditions in eastern and southern areas during the October to December (OND) season. The event is not the only climate driver affecting Eastern Africa. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a similar phenomenon linked to variations in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, can further enhance El Niño-related rainfall, increasing the likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions during the OND season. Forecasts indicate a high likelihood of above-average rainfall during the October to December period across much of equatorial Eastern Africa, particularly in southern Ethiopia, Somalia and north-eastern Kenya. Combined with a forecast positive IOD, this increases the risk of flooding, with potential consequences including displacement, infrastructure damage, crop and livestock losses, and outbreaks of waterborne diseases. The 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 El Niño events both resulted in widespread flooding, displacement, livelihood losses and disease outbreaks. The critical window for preparedness and anticipatory action is closing before the OND season peaks. Priorities include strengthening early warning systems, enhancing contingency planning, and pre-positioning humanitarian supplies in high-risk areas.
Somalia: Eastern Africa: El Niño Status and Humanitarian Impacts (September 2026)
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