Please refer to the attached file. Review Summary: • Deyr rains started early in parts of Gedo, Bay and Mudug — Bardheere (93 mm) and Galkacyo (50 mm) exceeded their October normals within the first five days • Rainfall remained highly uneven — rains extended from eastern Gedo through Bay, Bakool and Hiraan into central Somalia, while the Juba valley, Lower Juba and coastal Lower Shabelle remained largely dry • Jowhar rose sharply by 2. 22 m to 4. 70 m, only 0. 30 m below its moderate flood-risk level; Belet Weyne and Dollow also turned upward on 7 October after a few days decline • Water stress eased across much of central and south-central Somalia but worsened in the north-west, with severe to extreme drought conditions along parts of the Awdal and Berbera coasts • Livelihood stress persists despite localized improvement — communities continue to report water shortages and livestock losses in parts of Galgaduud, Mudug, Sanaag and Sool Forecast Highlight: • Moderate to very heavy rainfall is forecast across much of northern and central Somalia, Bay, Bakool and Hiraan, with 50–150 mm widely expected and localized totals exceeding 150–200 mm • Heavy rainfall is also forecast across the Ethiopian headwaters of both rivers — generally 50–100 mm or more — increasing inflows into the Shabelle and Juba • Shabelle flood risk is increasing rapidly — Jowhar is likely to reach its moderate flood-risk level this week, while Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti are expected to rise significantly; Juba flood risk remains low but is rising • Heavy rains should ease drought across much of the north and centre, but water stress is expected to persist along the Awdal coast and in Bu’aale, Sablaale and Afmadow, where little rain is forecast • Very heavy rainfall poses flash and urban flood risk in parts of the north, Bay and Hiraan, while 35–40°C heat and dry conditions persist across parts of southern Somalia
Somalia Weekly Weather Forecast – Valid From 7 to 13 October 2026
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