Countries: World, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Peru, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Source: Action Against Hunger Please refer to the attached file. 1. CONTEXT AND REGIONAL OVERVIEW Latin America and the Caribbean are increasingly exposed to the effects of climate change, whether through extreme events or through variability that is losing its historical patterns and becoming less predictable and more amplified. In 2026, climate forecasts confirm the occurrence of a new episode of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENSO), whose effects could extend into 2027 and vary significantly across territories. El Niño does not have the same impacts across the region. In the Central American Dry Corridor, the Caribbean, and areas of northern South America, rainfall deficits and water stress affect agricultural production, access to water, and livelihoods. In the Andes and along the Pacific coast of South America, by contrast, increased rainfall can lead to flooding, landslides, and damage to infrastructure and productive activities. These risks are compounded by heatwaves, wildfires, and changes in the distribution and patterns of climate-sensitive diseases. The intensity of these impacts also depends on pre-existing social and economic conditions. Poverty and social inequality, food and nutrition insecurity, gaps in access to safe water and sanitation, environmental degradation, territorial inequalities, and displacement can heighten communities’ exposure and vulnerability and limit their capacity to recover. These risks affect rural populations, Indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples, women, girls, boys, and adolescents, and other groups facing greater barriers to accessing services and resources, in differentiated ways. In this context, anticipating climate impacts is essential. Anticipatory action makes it possible to use risk and forecast information to trigger measures before losses occur, protecting livelihoods and reducing subsequent humanitarian needs. This publication presents up-todate evidence on the risks associated with ENSO, its impacts, and existing preparedness capacities in communities in Guatemala, Honduras, Peru, and Colombia, complemented in Venezuela with secondary sources and qualitative evidence. The study incorporates communities’ perceptions and experiences to identify not only where risks are concentrated, but also what capacities, knowledge, and solutions already exist in the territories. Building on this evidence, we seek to help strengthen coordination among communities, governments, humanitarian and development organizations, international cooperation, and other actors, promoting prevention, mitigation, anticipation, and response measures tailored to the realities of each territory
World: El Niño 2026: Risks, resilience and collective action in Latin America – Thematic Newsletter (September 2026)
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