Country: Uganda Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages In Karamoja, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January, driven by low livestock ownership among poor households and widespread crop losses following severely below-average rainfall through the second half of the March-October rainy season. Poor temporal rainfall distribution and below-average totals from June onward also negatively affected late-planted crops such as beans, green grams, sweet potatoes, and cassava. In some areas, farmers planted up to three times, with crops repeatedly failing to germinate. Most poor households are unable to meet their minimum food needs without engaging in unsustainable coping methods, despite a widespread one-time distribution of humanitarian food assistance in August. To reduce income gaps, households are engaging in off-own-farm activities, including gold mining, and those with livestock have increased sales, particularly of small ruminants and poultry. However, the income from these revenue streams is insufficient to fully mitigate food consumption gaps. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persisted in most northern Uganda refugee settlements in September, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across all refugee camps between October and January. As first season food stocks deplete among the poorest refugee households and food prices increase in line with typical seasonal trends, humanitarian food assistance will become insufficient to offset the growing gap in food access. Refugee households will seek agricultural labor opportunities during the second season rains to help narrow income gaps, but face high competition from host communities. According to WFP, as of late August, assistance is currently funded to continue at current levels through December. As of September 30, funding for food assistance in 2027 had received only about 33 percent of the required funding. In September, the typical onset of the second season rains in Uganda’s bimodal areas, rainfall ranged from -25 to -100 mm below average across the country. However, El Niño-driven heavy rainfall is forecast from October to December, which is expected to bring cumulatively above-average total rainfall for the season. The below average rainfall further diminished prospects for recovery of late-planted first season crops in Karamoja. In central and southwestern bimodal areas, prolonged dry spells that began towards the end of April, coupled with atypically high temperatures, have led to wilting and scorching of coffee trees, with coffee quality and yields expected to decline by about 10 percent. The most affected districts include greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule, and Luwero. Although some rainfall returned in September, it came too late to reverse the extensive damage to coffee and food crops, including bananas, which will continue to strain household food access and income, particularly in central and western Uganda. In addition, coffee prices have fallen sharply by 14. 5 percent due to increased global supply amid prolonged dry conditions and declining export volumes. The decreases in yield, quality, and price are expected to result in lower incomes for households in these regions. Along the cattle corridor extending from southwestern to northeastern Uganda, restrictions on livestock movement and trade in districts such as Nakasongola were intensified in September as part of ongoing effort to contain Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). The ban on the movement and sale of livestock and meat, particularly along key transit routes in Nakasongola District, has disrupted household livelihoods by reducing both food and income access. At the same time, the livestock sector continues to face the adverse effects of prolonged abnormal dryness, which has reduced pasture and water availability. The deteriorating livestock conditions have also led to a sharp decline in milk production, with daily output reportedly dropping from about 40, 000 liters to less than 1, 000 liters per day in districts such as Kasese. In Karamoja, despite generally adequate pasture conditions, low water availability has begun to drive atypically early seasonal livestock migrations which typically begin in November. Increased demand for USD to finance fuel imports amid a growing trade deficit contributed to UGX depreciation of 4–5 percent from late August to mid-September, and elevated fuel prices and currency depreciation put upward pressure on transport and food import costs. Inflation for food crops and related items rose from 1. 2 percent in August to 7. 0 percent in September, while energy, fuel and utilities (EFU) inflation rose from 0. 2 percent in August to 0. 5 percent in September. Fuel prices in Uganda remained slightly higher than in neighboring countries, with gasoline retailing at about 6, 529 UGX per liter. The rise in staple food prices is driven in part by the elevated fuel costs, but also typical seasonal depletion of domestically-produced stocks and atypically high regional demand from Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, and the DRC. Bean prices increased by 6. 3 percent by mid-September, up from 2. 4 percent in August, and both sorghum and maize remained elevated. Cassava and cooking bananas also recorded high prices. Bananas increased to 16 percent from 8. 4 percent in August. Other food crops with elevated prices include sweet potatoes, milk, and fruits.
Uganda Key Message Update: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in Karamoja; deterioration expected in refugee camps, September 2026 – January 2027
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