Country: Kenya Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to persist in Kakuma and Kalobeyei refugee settlements through January, with WFP food assistance remaining the primary source of food for most households and preventing worse outcomes**. In Dadaab, however, anticipated flooding between October and January is likely to worsen food insecurity outcomes to Emergency (IPC Phase 4). ** Flooding is expected to disrupt market functionality and access, constrain humanitarian operations, and increase waterborne disease incidence, further limiting households’ access to food and essential services. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January in Garissa, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, and Turkana, while conditions in other pastoral areas are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Forecast above-average October-December short rains are expected to cause flooding in Garissa, Mandera, Tana River, and Wajir, which will damage roads, restrict the movement of people and goods, disrupt food and livestock market operations, constrain access to essential services, displace households, and increase waterborne disease risk. These impacts are expected to disrupt livelihood activities and slow recovery following the June-September dry season. Flood risk is expected to be lower in other pastoral areas, where the rain is expected to replenish rangeland resources and drive improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity and household income from milk and livestock sales, in addition to expanded herding labor opportunities. However, recovery in Turkana is expected to remain slow due to the cumulative effects of previous poor seasons. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Lamu between October and January due to flooding, while other marginal agricultural areas are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January. In Lamu, expected flooding within the Tana River Delta will impede food production and income-earning opportunities, and constrain food access, widening food consumption gaps. However, receding floodwaters may support flood-recession cultivation and agricultural labor opportunities in riverine areas. In the remaining southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, above-average short rains, combined with government fertilizer and seed subsidies, are expected to encourage expanded cultivation, increasing agricultural labor opportunities for poor households. Harvests are expected to begin in December and continue into February, improving food availability and enabling most households to meet their minimum food needs. However, many poor households are likely to continue relying on coping strategies to meet essential non-food expenses. Kenya is expected to face an atypically large domestic maize supply deficit during the 2026 cropping year. Preliminaryestimates indicate long rains output will be 22-28 percent below the five-year average due to severe rainfall deficits experienced in the main maize-growing areas of the North Rift and western Kenya. As a net maize importer even in good production years, Kenya is expected to rely heavily on imports to maintain national availability and stabilize markets. In response, the government has announced plans to facilitate the importation of 2. 3 million metric tons of white maize, while Zambia’s Food Reserve Agency (FRA) has agreed to export over 0. 5 million metric tons to Kenya. Above-average land surface temperatures, combined with seasonal dryness, have accelerated rangeland deterioration, driving livestock migrations and degrading body conditions and productivity. As of late September, vegetation deterioration was most pronounced in Turkana and Samburu counties and in the agropastoral areas of West Pokot and Baringo. Livestock prices are well above average across pastoral markets, despite near-average body conditions, driven by limited household sales due to low herd sizes. As of August, the price of a mature medium-sized goat ranged from 18-45 percent above the five-year average. Prices are expected to remain above average through January, as reduced herd sizes continue to constrain market supply, while the anticipated improvements in rangeland resources during October-December short rains will discourage households from selling animals as they prioritize rebuilding their herds. Staple food prices are mixed. Maize prices are near to slightly below average, supported by supplies from long-rains harvests in bimodal production areas and cross-border imports, primarily from Tanzania and Uganda, while bean prices are elevated due to below-average production caused by erratic rainfall. As of August, maize prices ranged from near average to 13 percent below the five-year average across most pastoral and marginal agricultural markets, except in Garissa and Mandera, where they were 14 percent above average. Bean prices were 9 to 19 percent above average across most marginal agricultural areas. Both maize and bean prices are expected to increase seasonally between October and December as household food stocks deplete amid expected below-average maize supply from the unimodal areas. The October to December short rains are forecast to be above average, driven by strong El Niño conditions and a moderate to strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The Kenyan government has activated a contingency and emergency response plan to mitigate anticipated flooding and associated impacts countrywide. The plan includes identifying high-risk areas, clearing and rehabilitating drainage systems, inspecting critical infrastructure, conducting public awareness campaigns, strengthening evacuation preparedness, monitoring water bodies, and pre-positioning supplies in high-risk locations. In addition, the government has activated a livestock sector preparedness and anticipatory action plan, with pastoral and marginal agricultural areas identified as priority areas for intervention.
Kenya – Key Message Update: Gains expected from short rains, but flooding threatens recovery in eastern Kenya, September 2026 – January 2027
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