Country: World Source: AGRA Please refer to the attached file. Summary AGRA’s monthly Food Security Monitor serves as a vital tool for sharing timely data with key stakeholders, supporting informed, evidence-based decisions across the agricultural sector. Below are key highlights from the August 2026 Food Security Monitor edition: Global Market Updates • Global commodity market trends in August 2026 were characterized by rising food and agricultural commodity prices amid tightening global supply conditions, strong demand, weather-related production concerns, and trade disruptions. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) increased by 1. 9% from July to 133. 3 points, with gains across all major commodity groups, led by sugar (+11. 9%), cereals (+2. 2%), dairy (+2. 3%), meat (+1. 0%), and vegetable oils (+0. 6%). Similarly, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose sharply by 9. 4% month-on-month and 21. 7% year-on-year, driven primarily by strong increases in wheat (+9. 6% m/m; +26. 4% y/y) and soybeans (+11. 0% m/m; +24. 6% y/y), alongside gains in maize, barley, and rice. Global grain markets tightened further as forecasts for 2026/27 production were reduced due to adverse weather conditions, particularly in Europe, while disruptions to Black Sea exports added upward pressure on prices. In fertilizer markets, trends were mixed: phosphate fertilizers (DAP and MAP) remained firm and continued to rise modestly, potash prices were broadly stable, while urea prices declined for a third consecutive month as markets corrected after earlier record highs. Across Africa, fertilizer prices remained elevated in several countries, particularly in East and Southern Africa, although recent declines in countries such as Zambia, Ghana, and Nigeria suggest easing price pressures and improving market conditions in some markets amidst policy interventions. Food Commodity Prices Updates • Across Eastern Africa, staple food markets exhibited mixed trends in August 2026, reflecting improving supplies in some surplus-producing areas alongside localized market tightening elsewhere. Maize prices declined across most markets, particularly in Kenya (-10. 1%), Ethiopia (-6. 8%), Tanzania (-4. 4%), and Rwanda (4. 3%), supported by harvest inflows and improved market availability, while Uganda (+2. 7%) recorded an increase due to stronger regional demand and tightening domestic supplies. Rice prices remained largely stable across the region, although South Sudan (+5. 2%) experienced a notable increase amid localized supply constraints. Beans prices were largely stable in Kenya, increased moderately in Rwanda and Tanzania, and surged in Uganda, although most markets remained below year-earlier levels except Rwanda, where prices were still higher than a year ago. Wheat prices softened in both Kenya (-3. 6%) and Ethiopia (-1. 1%). Overall, improved cereal availability helped moderate food price pressures across much of the region, although localized supply constraints and strong demand continued to support higher prices in selected markets. • Southern Africa’s staple food markets exhibited mixed trends in August 2026, reflecting varying supply conditions, exchange-rate dynamics, and seasonal market adjustments. Maize prices declined in Zambia (12. 7%) and Mozambique (-2. 0%) as harvest arrivals improved market availability, while Malawi (+3. 5%) recorded an increase due to continued supply tightness despite favourable production prospects. Rice prices remained relatively stable, declining marginally in Zambia (-4. 2%) and Malawi (-0. 3%), while rising in Mozambique (+3. 6%) due to localized supply pressures and import costs. Bean prices showed divergent trends, increasing in Malawi (+5. 8%) amid tight supplies, but declining in Zambia (-5. 9%) and Mozambique (-6. 8%) as improved availability eased market pressures. Fertilizer markets remained broadly stable, with only modest month-on-month changes observed across major products. • West Africa’s staple food markets exhibited mixed trends in August 2026, reflecting seasonal supply conditions, localized market pressures, and ongoing regional trade flows. Maize markets recorded the most notable movements, with prices increasing sharply in Togo (+8. 7%) and Niger (+8. 2%), while Mali (-5. 4%) registered the largest decline; maize prices in Ghana and Nigeria changed only modestly, and Burkina Faso remained broadly stable. Rice markets were generally stable across the region, with only minor price fluctuations, although Ghana (-2. 8%) recorded a moderate decline. Coarse grain markets strengthened in several countries, led by significant increases in Niger’s millet (+22. 5%) and sorghum (+12. 5%) prices, reflecting tightening supplies and seasonal stock drawdowns. In contrast, Ghana’s sorghum market (-4. 2%) was the only one to record a decline, while most other markets experienced either modest gains or relative stability. Food Security Updates • Across East Africa food security continued to deteriorate driven by the combined impacts of climate shocks, conflict, displacement, high food prices, and weak household purchasing power. In Ethiopia, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist, particularly among pastoralists, displaced populations, and conflict-affected communities, as poor rainfall performance, below-average harvest prospects, inflation, and limited humanitarian assistance constrain food access. In Kenya, food insecurity remains elevated in refugee settlements and pastoral counties, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions expected in Dadaab and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persisting in several arid and semi-arid areas due to flooding risks, poor livestock production, reduced maize harvests, and constrained livelihood opportunities. South Sudan continues to face one of the world’s most severe food security crises, with widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, localized risks of Catastrophe/Famine (IPC Phase 5), severe acute malnutrition, and worsening conditions driven by conflict, economic decline, flooding, drought, and restricted humanitarian access. Meanwhile, Uganda faces persistent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions in Karamoja and among refugee populations due to poor harvests, high food and fuel prices, limited income opportunities, and growing humanitarian needs. Across the region, anticipated El Niñorelated weather extremes, including droughts and flooding, are expected to further undermine agricultural production, livelihoods, and market access, leaving millions vulnerable to acute food insecurity through early 2027. • Key food security trends in Southern Africa point to a generally deteriorating outlook in several countries despite relatively favourable harvest outcomes in some areas. Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe are expected to experience increasing food insecurity during the October 2026 to January 2027 lean season, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging or expanding due to high food prices, weakened purchasing power, declining agricultural labour opportunities, and depleted household food stocks. In Mozambique, conflict continues to drive acute food insecurity in Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula, while Zimbabwe faces worsening conditions in deficit-producing areas despite an above-average national maize harvest, owing to limited market access and persistently high staple food prices. In contrast, Zambia remains relatively food secure, with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes prevailing across most of the country due to strong harvests and adequate food supplies, although vulnerable households in some western, southern, and eastern areas are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Across the region, the anticipated persistence of a strong El Niño poses a major threat, with forecasts of below-average rainfall, higher temperatures, reduced crop and livestock production, lower agricultural labour demand, and declining household incomes likely to increase food insecurity and place additional pressure on food markets during the 2026/27 agricultural season. • In West Africa, conflict, insecurity, displacement, high food prices, and weather-related production challenges continue to drive acute food insecurity across the region, particularly in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in parts of Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions remain widespread in conflict-affected areas of Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, Niger, and parts of Mali, where insecurity continues to disrupt agricultural production, livelihoods, market access, and humanitarian assistance. Although the arrival of seasonal harvests and generally improved rainfall conditions are expected to enhance food availability and support some recovery in countries such as Mali, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire, gains are being constrained by population displacement, trade disruptions, weakened purchasing power, and persistently high food and transport costs. In relatively more stable areas, including much of Côte d’Ivoire and Togo, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist as poor households struggle to meet essential non-food needs despite improved food access. Across the region, conflict remains the dominant driver of food insecurity, while erratic rainfall, localized flooding, reduced crop production prospects, disease outbreaks, and economic pressures continue to compound vulnerabilities and hinder household recovery through early 2027. Update on El Niño conditions A powerful El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean and is projected to become one of the strongest on record during the 2026/27 season, with NOAA estimating a greater than 90% probability of its continuation and a 69% chance of surpassing all El Niño events recorded since 1950. This is significantly increasing climate-related risks across Africa. In Southern Africa, despite an above-average 2026 cereal harvest driven by strong maize production, forecasts indicate below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures during the upcoming cropping season, threatening crop establishment, yields, food availability, and farmer incomes in 2027. In East Africa, recurrent droughts, heatwaves, and erratic weather continue to undermine crop and livestock production, while anticipated wetter conditions may increase flood risks and infrastructure damage rather than support recovery. Food security conditions remain particularly severe in conflict-affected countries such as Sudan, where millions face acute food insecurity and heightened famine risk. In West and Central Africa, agricultural production has generally remained near average, but variable rainfall, localized moisture deficits, conflict, displacement, and market disruptions continue to threaten livelihoods and food access. Overall, the combination of El Niño-driven climate shocks, conflict, economic pressures, and displacement is expected to exacerbate food insecurity across the continent, underscoring the need for early preparedness, climate adaptation, and resilience-building measures. Food Trade Updates • On 6 August 2026, the African Development Bank Group approved a $255 million loan and a $10 million grant to support Zambia’s participation in the Lobito Economic Corridor, a regional initiative linking Zambia, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to boost trade, industrialisation, and economic growth. The project will fund the construction of 550 km of railway infrastructure, upgrade key roads, improve trade facilitation and institutional capacity, reduce logistics costs, attract investment, and create thousands of jobs while promoting skills development, youth employment, and climate-resilient infrastructure. • Kenya and DRC are deepening regional digital integration through the launch of the 2, 000 km Goma-to-Mombasa (G2M) fibre corridor and the integration of Kenya’s Pesalink instant-payment platform with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), enabling faster connectivity and near real-time cross-border payments in local currencies. Together, these initiatives aim to boost trade, reduce transaction and connectivity costs, strengthen financial and digital inclusion, and support broader economic integration across East and Central Africa. • The African Organization for Standardisation (ARSO) has launched the Africa Quality Mark in Mombasa, a continentwide certification framework designed to support the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by eliminating duplicate product testing and quality inspections across borders. The initiative will allow goods certified in one African country to be accepted across participating markets, reducing trade costs, accelerating border clearance, improving market access and competitiveness, and helping address longstanding non-tariff barriers that have constrained intraAfrican trade, while also requiring investments in standard harmonisation, laboratory accreditation, enforcement capacity, and digital systems to ensure credibility and adoption across the continent.
World: Food Security Monitor – August 2026
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