Waiting for the water

EDITORIAL: A warning that the Indus has shifted nearly 4. 5 kilometres east of Larkana over roughly 35 years and is now threatening a critical section of the flood protection dyke should be enough to trigger emergency action. SUPARCO’s satellite analysis shows sustained channel migration and bank erosion around the Aqil and Moria loop bunds, with approximately 2, 000 hectares already eroded along the left bank. The river has effectively consumed the safety margin that once separated it from crucial flood infrastructure. Yet, once again, evidence of an approaching disaster appears to be moving considerably faster than the machinery responsible for preventing it. There is little excuse for official surprise. Investigators, scientists, water experts and the media have repeatedly identified the dangers created by encroachment, unplanned construction and interference with natural waterways. The Supreme Court’s Flood Commission examined precisely these problems after the catastrophic floods of 2010, when the Tori Bund breach contributed to devastation across Sindh. Settlements and fish ponds had appeared inside protected areas, natural flood paths had been compromised and the consequences were eventually borne by people whose homes and livelihoods disappeared under water. Sixteen years later, the underlying governance failure remains disturbingly familiar. Riverine land continues to be occupied, floodplains continue to be built upon and development continues without adequate regard for hydrology or long-term flood risk. Around Hyderabad, land that previously provided a natural riparian buffer has increasingly given way to permanent housing and roads. Such construction leaves floodwater less room to disperse and increases pressure on embankments and settlements when the Indus rises. The Larkana findings make the danger particularly urgent. Satellite imagery indicates that decades of erosion and sediment deposition have pushed the active river channel towards flood defences. Continued scouring can weaken an embankment even before water overtops it. A structural failure during high flows could therefore leave surrounding communities with dangerously little time to evacuate. This is a measurable physical threat, documented through decades of satellite imagery, rather than some theoretical risk buried in a planning document. So where is the corresponding urgency from government? Pakistan has developed an unfortunate habit of investigating disasters thoroughly after they occur while showing considerably less enthusiasm for preventing them beforehand. Commissions are constituted, reports are written, recommendations are issued and responsibility gradually disappears into the bureaucracy. Encroachments involving politically connected interests make enforcement still harder, while weak planning and corruption steadily convert natural hazards into man-made catastrophes. The financial consequences alone should command attention. Billions of rupees worth of homes, agricultural land, infrastructure and economic activity are exposed when flood protection fails. Reconstruction then requires scarce public money, international assistance and years of rehabilitation. The human consequences are immeasurably greater. Families lose homes, crops and businesses; communities are displaced; and lives can be lost because authorities ignored risks that were visible long before the water arrived. The Sindh government must therefore treat the SUPARCO findings as an emergency planning document. Vulnerable sections of the bund require immediate technical assessment and reinforcement where necessary. Encroachments that obstruct flood flows must be identified and addressed, while settlement and construction inside high-risk floodplains require strict control. Most importantly, the government should publish the findings, its response plan, timelines and subsequent progress so responsibility cannot once again disappear behind departmental files. The investigators have investigated, the satellites have photographed and the experts have warned. Even the river has supplied ample evidence of where it is heading. The government now has the rare luxury of confronting a potential disaster before it becomes one. Waiting for the Indus to deliver the final warning would amount to negligence of the most unforgivable kind. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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