Colombia – Food Security Outlook Update (August 2026 – January 2027): Earthquake impacts reduce food access in affected areas as El Niño strengthens

Country: Colombia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Chocó and La Guajira through January 2027, while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes remain widespread across poorer rural, peri-urban, border, and conflict-affected areas. Recent earthquake impacts, persistent below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, and escalating violence in localized areas are expected to constrain livelihoods and income-generating activities, particularly for rural households. Meanwhile, elevated living costs and irregular income will continue to limit poor households’ purchasing power despite comparatively stable prices for most processed staples. In Chocó and surrounding areas impacted by the August 10 7. 4 magnitude earthquake, housing and asset losses and livelihood disruptions are reducing food access for households with already limited capacity to cope, particularly in remote rural areas. Impacts are concentrated in Chocó, Risaralda, Valle del Cauca, Caldas, and Quindío and the number of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in these departments is expected to increase; however, available evidence does not currently indicate a broad deterioration in area-level outcomes. Markets and basic services are recovering more rapidly in connected urban areas, while housing, income, and livelihood recovery remain slower in remote communities. Strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to negatively impact livelihood options through early 2027, particularly in La Guajira, where increasingly dry and warm conditions are expected to further constrain water availability, pasture regeneration, livestock productivity, rainfed agricultural activities, and agropastoral income, and contribute to increased risk of wildfires, limiting food access. However, generally adequate national food availability and well-supplied markets are expected to limit broader deterioration.

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