Countries: Madagascar, Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Please refer to the attached file. A rapidly intensifying El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean and is forecast to reach exceptional strength at a critical time for Southern Africa. El Niño is projected to persist from July 2026 through March 2027, with a greater than 90 per cent likelihood of reaching very strong intensity. There is also a 70 per cent chance that October–December rainfall deficits will exceed those recorded during any El Niño year since 1950. Below-normal rainfall is expected across much of Southern Africa during the October-April rainy season. The outlook is concerning as El Niño is forecast to peak during this period, coinciding with planting and the critical crop-growing season. Given the projected impacts of the 2026/27 El Niño, governments and humanitarian partners across Southern Africa should prioritize areas where drought, extreme heat, water scarcity, food insecurity, and malnutrition are likely to compound existing humanitarian needs.
Madagascar: Southern Africa: 2026 El Niño Preparedness Alert (August 2026)
RELATED ARTICLES
