Guatemala – Food Security Outlook : Reduced rainfall, high temperatures and market dependence maintain Crisis, June 2026 – January 2027

Country: Guatemala Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Between June and September 2026 in the Dry Corridor, the poorest households in some areas of Alta Verapaz and the Western Highlands will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following consecutive crop losses, high market dependence, atypically low income, and an early lean season. Irregular rainfall, high temperatures, and increased input prices will continue to limit agricultural employment, forcing households to resort to strategies such as selling productive assets and reducing portions. Between October 2026 and January 2027, many poor households will be classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as income from temporary labor in commercial crops and harvests of basic grains, although late and below average, will temporarily improve food access and consumption for a few months. However, in the Dry Corridor and areas of Alta Verapaz and the Altiplano, households that did not obtain harvests this year will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January, as they will continue to depend on the market amid limited income, preventing them from meeting a minimally adequate diet since debt repayment and high prices will restrict purchasing power. The El Niño phenomenon will maintain below-normal precipitation and elevated temperatures until January, affecting primera season crops and postrera planting. Given the delayed establishment of rains and planting, basic grain harvests will flow to markets with delays, sustaining high prices for a long period. FEWS NET estimates that the population in need of food assistance will be between 2. 0-2. 49 million between June and September, reaching the upper limit of the range between July and August, as stocks decline, income sources decrease, and dependence on food purchases intensifies. Between October 2026 and January 2027, the seasonal increase in income and availability of own harvests will allow many households to improve food consumption, bringing the population in need to between 1. 5 and 1. 99 million people.

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