Countries: World, Algeria, Chad, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Please refer to the attached file. El Niño forcing continues to dominate the seasonal precipitation forecasts, and the outlook is nearly unchanged from last month, with minor changes in the predicted precipitation anomalies in a few regions. First, the dry signal has intensified over western India and southeastern Pakistan in August and September, reflecting both the stronger El Niño signal and a slightly less positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase. Wet conditions are still expected to develop across the Horn of Africa in September, extending to northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East in October, with stronger August–October dryness in India and Pakistan, while wetter conditions are expected in western Africa. Another minor shift is a stronger wet signal across the northern Sahel from September through November, with the notable wet anomaly likely indicating a delayed end to the rainy season. Summer breeding will occur in Mauritania and, at a smaller scale, in other Sahelian areas. Breeding should continue in the Western Region during August and September, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.
World: Locust Watch: Seasonal precipitation predictions in the Desert Locust summer and winter breeding areas (August 2026–January 2027) (21 July 2026)
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