Country: Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo, and Aragua following back-to-back earthquakes of 7. 2 and 7. 5 magnitude on June 24. Although post-disaster assessments are still ongoing, direct physical damage is expected to be billions of USD, while overall economic losses are likely to be higher. Among worst-affected poor households, disrupted livelihoods, asset and income losses, the deaths of working family members, and increased medical expenses amid sustained high inflation are driving food consumption gaps and the use of negative coping strategies. Across the rest of Venezuela, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected with pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as extremely low purchasing power continues amid persistent local currency volatility and high general and food inflation rates. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, FEWS NET estimates that between 3. 0-3. 49 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance. The population in need is expected to gradually decline through January 2027 as the clearing of rubble and debris, rebuilding, and restoration of basic services – alongside improving macroeconomic conditions – support the recovery of household livelihoods. Macroeconomic conditions are likely to improve progressively, even though inflation will remain high. Government revenues are expected to increase due to higher oil production and exports and competitive international prices, supporting continued intervention to contain local currency depreciation and sustain social safety net benefits. Monthly inflation is expected to remain below 15 percent, while annual inflation is anticipated to remain close to 550 percent, similar to 2025 levels. In addition, the gap between the official and parallel exchange rate is expected to remain near 45 percent, eroding the real value of social safety net bonuses and household purchasing power even as the value of most benefits are expected to increase according to indexation. The government has announced an emergency response bonus, but details are limited.
Venezuela – Food Security Outlook (June 2026 – January 2027): Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerge following high-magnitude earthquakes
RELATED ARTICLES
