Country: Mozambique Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through September in flood – and dryness-affected areas of southern and central Mozambique, where widespread crop failure and livestock losses, compounded by incomplete recovery from previous shocks, are expected to prolong the lean season until the second-season harvest becomes available in June. Households in these areas will remain highly market-dependent amid limited income-earning opportunities and below-average purchasing power, restricting food access and increasing reliance on coping strategies such as reducing meal size and frequency, consuming less-preferred or wild foods, and labor migration. The ongoing main season harvest, where possible, and the second season harvest starting in June are expected to gradually improve food availability in less-affected areas, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through September in conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula provinces, driven by ongoing insecurity, displacement, and market disruptions. Improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is anticipated in less conflict-affected areas where households are likely to benefit from the green and main harvest starting in April/May, gradually improving food availability and access. However, continued inflows of displaced populations and the associated pressure on local resources and markets are expected to limit improvements. Fuel prices remain stable to date, but the government has indicated that prices may increase if the escalation in the Middle East persists. Increased fuel prices would immediately raise transport, and eventually food costs, further eroding poor households’ purchasing power. Poor urban households rely heavily on market purchases, and would be directly and immediately affected by rising prices, purchasing power would be expected to decline, and competition for already limited income-generating opportunities would likely intensify.
Mozambique Food Security Outlook Update: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcome persists despite ongoing countrywide harvests, April – September 2026
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