Analysing ME conflict through historical lens—II

It increasingly appears that on account of social changes in the USA and the pressure the country is facing against Chinese trade relations with Israel is a liability for the USA not being an asset. The USA is there in the area for the commercial interest as they consider that Arab countries which surround Israel are inherently not against the elimination of Israel from the world map. Thus a political Israel is a fait accompli and Iran has to accept that reality. The war which started on February 28, 2026 is a commercial supremacy war for the USA. Since it is so, the Middle Eastern Arab countries are the main silent participants. How things are expected to move in future is discussed in the following paragraphs after discussing Iran. History of Iran and dispute with the USA and Israel Iran, though described as the part of Middle East, has a completely different history from the Arab areas. It was never a part of the Ottoman Empire. The Balfour Agreement and establishment of Israel had no direct link with Iran, which has been unnecessarily dragged or has become a part of this conflict. Iran and Israel maintained close, strategic, and often secret ties before the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran was the second Muslim-majority nation to recognize Israel (1950), with the two countries cooperating on military, agricultural, and intelligence matters, as well as energy, with Iran supplying oil to Israel. Israel viewed Iran as a key part of its “peripheral doctrine, ” building alliances with non-Arab countries to counteract Arab hostility. SAVAK, Iran’s secret police, was formed with help from the Mossad. The two nations even cooperated on joint missile development projects. Iran, which was known as Persia, has a completely different story for oil exploration also. Oil had already been discovered in Persia by a British Company in 1908. The Qajar king who was almost bankrupt, at that time gave the concession on very lucrative terms to that British company. The company was not owned by the British Government; however, the British government purchased a 51 percent stake in the company in 1914 to secure oil for its naval fleet, encouraged by Winston Churchill. The company was renamed Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (1935) and later BP (1954), with its Iranian operations eventually nationalized. Iran has never been officially colonized; however, prior to change of regime in 1979 Iran was the biggest supporter of the US and allies in the region. There are apparently no areas of conflict between Iran and the USA as it is for Arabs and their energy resources. This leads to a key question why there is a war between Israel-the USA and Iran. As stated above, the apparent excuse of nuclear power is not tenable. Accordingly, the real reason for the war would have to be identified. Reasons for the war and the respective objectives: The USA and Israel Destruction of nuclear capabilities of Iran; and Destruction of Golden Crescent being sponsored by Iran through Syria and Lebanon; Support of Iran in Yemen and Bahrain; and Weaken Iran so that the Islamic republic may not control Iraqi and Syrian Shias over the time. The USA clearly knows by now that change of regime in Iran is not possible. When Trump says that he has achieved the objectives then he obviously means that the remaining three objectives have been achieved. The author may agree with this hypothesis; however, since the regime has stayed on with more aspirations all the other three objectives will reemerge soon. Nevertheless, it is totally in the interest of Israel and the USA that war should be stopped immediately. The aforesaid analysis therefore ties up with the present position of Trump and Israel. Iran Keeping hatred against SAVAK and the USA alive by constantly treating the USA as inherent enemy for political reasons in Iran; The national compulsion to support oppressed people in Yemen and Lebanon; To defuse USA’s control and its presence in the Persian Gulf Area; and To influence Shia Iraq, Bahrain and Eastern province of Saudi Arabia over time. If Iran’s position is examined, it transpires that Iran has also achieved her objectives. Though she is weaker than in the past, there has been a moral victory. Iran’s desire would be to defer the closure of war as Gulf States and world markets are under serious pressure due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The USA is not expected to make the suicidal attempt to ask Marines to land in order to control the Strait of Hormuz. If this action is done then it means that there will be a war on the land of Iran in which other targets like Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait will be severely at risk. It is the author’s view that Iran wants the USA to make this mistake so that the USA, the UK and Israel are exposed to a different kind of war where their world assets all around the world will be exposed. Conclusion This war is expected to end within a week and Iran will place two conditions for closure. These are: (i) removal of sanctions and return of their frozen assets and (ii) gradual closure of US bases in the Gulf over time. The other party would require reduction of Iran’s influence in Yamen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. It is the author’s view that except for closure of bases all points will be agreed. The military bases would be closed by the USA under a long-term agreement and their personnel will be replaced by a NATO-like alliance. Pakistan can play a very positive role in creating a win-win situation for both. (Concluded) Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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