A fight for sovereignty and ideology

The ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel has dramatically reshaped the political and security landscape of the Middle East. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a coordinated military operation aimed at disabling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. This strike targeted key Iranian military infrastructure and leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Both the US and Israel have presented the attack as part of a larger strategy to bring about regime change in Iran. In response, Iran quickly retaliated with a wave of missile and drone attacks against US military positions and Israeli assets, both in the Gulf region and beyond. Hundreds of Iranians, many of them civilians, have died, particularly in cities like Tehran. The war has expanded quickly, with Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, firing missiles into Israel, prompting Israel’s retaliatory bombardments in Beirut and northern Lebanon. At the same time, countries in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, have been affected, with tensions rising within the Gulf Cooperation Council. Israel declared a state of emergency and mobilized tens of thousands of reservists. Airspace over the region was closed, and other disruptions followed. US officials have suggested that this operation might last anywhere from four to five weeks, but they haven’t ruled out the possibility of extending it, depending on how things develop. This war is also shaking up the global economy, particularly in energy markets. The Gulf region is a major hub for oil and gas exports, and Iran’s missile strikes on key infrastructure, along with worries about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have caused turmoil in global markets. Additionally, the conflict has led to a bigger geopolitical competition, with Russia and China condemning the strikes, thus intensifying global tensions. One important aspect of this war is the role of proxy groups supporting Iran, like Hezbollah. Their involvement highlights the fact that the war isn’t just between states; non-state actors with the power to destabilize neighboring regions are also playing a big part. Meanwhile, Pakistan and Afghanistan have entered a direct military conflict of their own, adding even more complexity to the already fragile regional stability. This fight, fueled by years of tensions and the presence of militant groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has further destabilized the region. In late February 2026, Pakistan carried out cross-border strikes into Afghanistan, accusing Afghan-based militants of attacking Pakistan. Afghanistan has responded with military action, and both sides now refer to it as an “open war. ” Although the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict is separate from the Iran–US/Israel war, both crises are tied together by the broader security environment. Both involve militant groups and unstable governments, adding to the pressure on the region. A key part of the ME conflict is the issue of regime change. While many hoped that killing the Supreme Leader would lead to the downfall of the Iranian government, it’s important to remember that Iran has a strong succession system. If the Supreme Leader dies or becomes unable to lead, a temporary council of senior clerics and state officials takes over, and a new leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This system is designed to ensure the continuity of the state, even when a powerful leader is removed. While the US and Israel may have hoped that removing Khamenei would weaken Iran’s political structure, Iran’s political system is built to withstand such shocks. This includes the ongoing influence of the Revolutionary Guard and other key political and religious bodies. It’s unclear whether the death of the Supreme Leader will result in actual regime change, as internal political forces may rally to consolidate power instead of letting the country fall apart. Immediately following the US and Israeli strikes, Iran saw a wave of solidarity among its people, despite fears and uncertainty. In cities like Tehran, large crowds of government supporters filled the streets, not to call for the regime’s downfall but to protest foreign aggression and rally behind their national cause. Videos from the protests showed people chanting patriotic and religious slogans, waving national flags as a sign of defiance. This highlighted the deep public support for Iran’s sovereignty. Iranian officials and clerics framed the killing of the Supreme Leader not as a defeat but as a challenge to the country itself. They called for national unity and resistance against what they saw as an attack on Iran’s sovereignty. The Iranian foreign ministry described the strikes as a severe violation of international law and an assault on the country’s dignity, aiming to rally the people behind their current government rather than weaken it. While some individuals may privately feel fear or uncertainty, the public response in many cities has been one of unity, driven by national pride and a long-standing culture of resisting external pressure. While celebrations were limited, especially in many parts of the country, there’s still hope for change among younger generations who feel disconnected from the country’s ruling elites. However, the regime’s security measures have suppressed large-scale unrest, and the desire for reform remains simmering beneath the surface. Meanwhile, many Iranians abroad have been celebrating the death of the Supreme Leader, seeing it as an opportunity for Iran’s future, possibly leading to a more democratic society. The devastating war between the US/ Israel, and Iran has rocked the global landscape, challenging predictions that Iran’s army and public resistance would collapse within days. Contrary to expectations, Iran has managed to respond with resilience, expanding its efforts to resist while global business and the economy feel the repercussions of the ongoing conflict. The war has spread across the Middle East, drawing in countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel, and several European nations, turning the conflict into a regional power struggle. The conflict, driven by advanced global technologies, is expected to escalate, but Iran’s refusal to surrender stands as a testament to its historical resilience. With the help of technical and strategic support, Iran is showing that it will not give in easily, maintaining its firm stance despite overwhelming odds. In the larger context, the Iran–US/Israel war is one of the most consequential conflicts in recent decades, with far-reaching effects on the Middle East and global diplomacy. Its impact extends beyond the battlefield, influencing global energy markets and regional security dynamics. Meanwhile, the Pakistan–Afghanistan conflict, though separate, serves as a reminder of how intertwined modern-day geopolitical challenges have become. As these crises unfold, the international community must confront the reality that regional conflicts are increasingly connected in ways that go beyond national borders. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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