Countries: South Sudan, Sudan Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in 32 counties across the north and east of the country in the lean season (June through September) due to escalating conflict and large-scale displacements, exhaustion of household food stocks, high returnee presence, and ongoing economic shocks including rising prices, poor macroeconomic conditions, and further erosion of purchasing power. Areas in north-central Jonglei and southeastern Upper Nile will remain of highest concern, particularly where displacement is most severe, such as in Akobo, Nyirol, and Uror. An increasing share of these county populations are expected to face large to extreme food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) through September. Already high levels of acute malnutrition are also expected to continue upward trajectories driven by displacement, disease outbreaks, and deteriorating access to water, hygiene, health, and nutrition services. FEWS NET estimates up to 8. 0 – 8. 99 million people will need humanitarian food assistance, with needs peaking from July to September. There is a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Nasir and Ulang (Upper Nile) and in Ayod, Duk, Nyirol, Uror, Akobo, and Fangak (Jonglei), with particular concern for areas hosting large numbers of internally displaced populations (IDPs). Hunger and acute malnutrition are already high in these areas – especially among IDPs with who have fled violence and destruction often multiple times, lost income and food sources, and are most exposed to surging disease outbreaks in overcrowded conditions. A recent rapid screening in Nyirol found 30 percent of children were acutely malnourished (as measured by mid-upper arm circumference), well over the Famine threshold for acute malnutrition (15 percent). If conflict escalates and isolates populations – preventing movement and access to local food sources and humanitarian assistance for a prolonged period – then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur, with highest concern during the upcoming lean and flooding seasons (June-September). Escalating clashes between Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and opposition forces allied under Sudan People’s Liberation Alliance-in Opposition (SPLM‐IO) continue to drive large-scale displacements and severely disrupt humanitarian operations. IOM DTM estimates nearly 270, 000 people are currently internally displaced across Jonglei, Lakes, Upper Nile, and Central Equatoria, while at least 110, 000 people fled from Akobo to Ethiopia in early March. This mass displacement across the border followed March 6 evacuation orders issued ahead of anticipated military operations on Akobo town, which triggered widespread panic, looting, and the collapse of basic services, trade flows, and humanitarian access. As of March 19, Akobo town reportedly remains largely deserted, with humanitarian activities suspended. On March 15, additional evacuation orders in Nasir ahead of military operations anticipated in Mandeng and Torkech payams of Nasir resulted in departure of five humanitarian organizations and suspension of assistance delivery. Across affected areas, armed actors continue to loot and destroy critical infrastructure – including markets and health facilities – further degrading already fragile service delivery systems and compounding constrains on both livelihoods and humanitarian response capacity. Sporadic violence also continued through March in areas outside of Jonglei and Upper Nile. Fatal attacks by armed youth from Mayom (Unity) occurred in Abiemnhom (Ruweng) – resulting in 180 deaths and displacement of over 20, 000 people – and in Tonj North and East (Warrap), where 20 were killed and 500 people displaced. FEWS NET’s recent assessment mission to Gogrial East and Twic (Warrap) found persistent intra- and inter-communal clashes and cattle raids, the most recent of which resulted 12 deaths, looting of over 500 cattle, and disrupted access to wild gathering and fishing. Tensions also remain high in parts of Central and Western Equatoria, including Yei, Lainya, Morobo, Tambura, and Mundri East, the latter of which saw violence by armed youth that led to the deaths of 15 people, looting of unconfirmed number of cattle, and displacement of over 200 people in mid-March. Amid escalating internal displacement, continued inflow of returnees and refugees from Sudan are compounding the humanitarian crisis, particularly in northern bordering counties. Between January and mid-March 2026, more than 40, 000 people crossed into South Sudan—lower than the roughly 110, 000 arrivals during the same period in 2025 but still averaging over 500 arrivals per day. This brings the cumulative number of returnees and refugees since the onset of the Sudan conflict to 1. 35 million people. These sustained inflows are straining already limited available resources and services, accelerating resource depletion, and contributing to worsening acute food insecurity and malnutrition outcomes in the hosting counties. South Sudan’s economy continues to deteriorate amid ongoing mismanagement, currency depreciation, and high inflation. A new government directive issued in early March requiring custom duties and goods clearance to be paid in physical cash—rather than through a digital system—is increasing transaction costs and contributing to rising food and fuel prices. Conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to international oil flows are expected to increase import costs in a country highly dependent on imported refined fuel and food. Although higher global crude prices may boost South Sudan’s oil revenues, structure weaknesses will limit broader recovery; GDP is projected to remain below half of its 2011 level, and per capita GDP below half the regional average by 2030. In this context, the rising cost of living—combined with widespread unemployment—is expected to further erode household purchasing power and limit financial access to food. Trade flows and market functionality remain severely disrupted in March in the most conflict-affected counties of Jonglei and Upper Nile State. In relatively calmer areas, the sudden rise in fuel prices due to the combination of the new custom duty and clearance fees and traders’ speculation of reduced fuel supply is driving high transport costs and escalating food prices, further limiting access to food in markets. Based on the price monitoring data, a liter of fuel has increased by 20 to 60 percent between February and March 2026 in Rumbek Centre, Wau, Aweil Centre, and Juba respectively. Similarly, the cost of minimum expenditure basket increased by ten to 42 percent in February compared to January in Jur River, Tonj East, Tambura, Rumbek Centre, Panyikang, Renk, and Bentiu IDP camp, and was 12 – 60 percent higher than the same time last year. Humanitarian access remains severely disrupted due to the escalating violence and military operations particularly in Greater Upper Nile. Partners are working to scale-up response activities in the largest displacement locations including in Bor South, Nyirol, Uror, Ayod, Duk, Fangak, Canal/Pigi, and Twic East. As of March 19, WFP and partners distributed an estimated 57. 9 metric tons of food to about 6, 600 people, while deliveries are ongoing for over 18, 000 displaced people in Chuil payam of Nyirol. Meanwhile, in Duk County, about 44 metric tons of food were distributed to more than 3, 500 displaced people in Poktap payam of Duk. In Twic East, Lutheran World Federation has provided cash-for-food assistance to 970 households. WFP and partners are planning cash distributions targeting over 60, 000 people in Akobo East. However, repeated evacuation orders for humanitarians in Akobo and Nasir, attacks on humanitarian workers, and increasing access constraints are crippling the ability to scale-up the response.
South Sudan Key Message Update: Conflict drives Emergency and risk of Famine in Jonglei and Upper Nile through September, March – September 2026
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