Please refer to the attached file. FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT Planting of 2027 winter cereals underway amid low water reservoir levels Near‑average cereal harvest in 2026 supported by favourable weather conditions Wheat import requirements forecast below average in 2026/27 marketing year Inflationary pressures keep cereal retail prices high in 2026 Planting of the 2027 winter cereal crops started in late September and is expected to continue until mid‑November. However, high agricultural input costs, particularly for fertilizers and seeds, may discourage farmers to plant and limit the extent of area planted. In addition, low water levels in reservoirs serving key producing provinces, including Golestan and North Khorasan, could restrict irrigation water availability and adversely affect crop establishment and early development. Near-average cereal harvest in 2026 supported by favourable weather conditions Harvesting of the 2026 winter cereal crops was completed in July. Wheat production is estimated at about 14 million tonnes, marking a significant recovery from the drought‑affected harvest in 2025 and returning to the near‑average levels. Despite dry weather conditions at the beginning of the season, abundant rainfall between mid‑December 2025 and February 2026 replenished soil moisture and supported crop development during critical growth stages. By mid‑October 2026, about 8. 5 million tonnes of wheat had been procured by the government, more than 1 percent above the volume purchased during the same period in 2025. Barley production also recovered significantly and is estimated at 3. 2 million tonnes, nearly 3 percent above the average, reflecting high yields in both irrigated and rainfed areas. Harvesting of the 2026 rice crop was completed in September in the main northern producing provinces, including Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan. Total rice production (in paddy basis) is estimated at about 4 million tonnes, nearly 7 percent above the five‑year average. Wheat import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at 2. 5 million tonnes, about 34 percent below the five-year average, reflecting abundant carryover stocks from above‑average imports in 2025/26 and favourable domestic production in 2026. By contrast, maize import requirements are forecast at about 11 million tonnes, approximately 5 percent above average, driven by sustained demand for feed from the livestock and poultry sectors. The subsidized preferential exchange rate of IRR 285 000/USD 1 for wheat imports remains in place during the 2026/27 marketing year, supporting the availability of key staple food and helping contain domestic price pressures amid the substantial depreciation of the market exchange rate, which reached about IRR 1 800 000/USD 1 in October 2026. Retail prices of wheat flour and rice in Tehran were broadly stable month‑on‑month in October 2026. However, they remained significantly above their year‑earlier levels, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures and the depreciation of the national currency. In August‑September 2026 (Shahrivar 1405), consumer prices of food, beverages and tobacco were about 122 percent higher year‑on‑year, while prices of bread and cereals increased by about 103 percent over the same period, further eroding households’ purchasing power and constraining access to basic food items. The continued depreciation of the Iranian rial, amid regional conflicts and trade disruptions, has contributed to elevated import and production costs. The government continued to implement social protection measures, including cash transfers and the electronic food voucher (Kalabarg) scheme, aimed at supporting vulnerable households and improving access to food. The voucher scheme is expected to remain in place until the end of the Iranian calendar year in March 2027.
GIEWS Country Brief: Iran (Islamic Republic of) 10-November-2026
RELATED ARTICLES
