Syria: Acute Needs Analysis | November 2025 – March 2026

Please refer to the attached file. WHAT IS THE ACUTE NEEDS ANALYSIS? The 2026 Acute Needs Analysis (ANA) seeks to support needs-based prioritisation by identifying populations facing the most acute, life-threatening needs. The analysis uses a standardised framework to consolidate a wide range of evidence and develops findings that are comparable within and across crises. The ANA focuses on intersectoral drivers of mortality to assess the risk of emergency mortality. The ANA considers the impact of violence and insecurity on (access to) critical services. However, due to the complexity of anticipating conflict dynamics and impacts, it does not include risk of direct trauma deaths, nor does it provide a full picture of all needs or community priorities. WHERE ARE THE MOST ACUTE NEEDS? More than a decade of conflict in Syria has caused widespread damage to infrastructure and basic services, as well as large-scale and protracted displacement. While overall levels of hostilities have declined and recovery efforts are underway, economic hardship, population movements, recurrent shocks, and localised insecurity continue to drive needs. An Acute Needs Analysis (ANA) was conducted to identify where these needs are most acute, covering all 270 sub-districts (Admin 3) in Syria. In this analysis, Acute Needs (AN) refer to high-severity gaps across key drivers of mortality, while Risk of Excess Mortality (RoEM) refers to a convergence of these conditions to the point that available evidence suggests mortality has likely exceeded the emergency threshold. The ANA classified 9 sub-districts as Plausible RoEM and the remaining 261 as AN. The Plausible RoEM classification indicates that the analysis identified severe conditions and a plausible pathway towards emergency-level mortality; however, specific evidence gaps prevented a final judgement on whether this represents the most likely scenario. Notably, none of the 270 assessed sub-districts were classified as having No evidence of Acute Needs or Insufficient Data. In addition, several sub-districts that were not classified as Plausible RoEM nevertheless exhibited concerning conditions that could indicate heightened vulnerability to further deterioration. The sub-districts classified as Plausible RoEM were concentrated in Al-Hasakeh governorate (Tal Tamer, Al-Hasakeh, Tal Hmis, Be’r Al-Hulo Al-Wardeyyeh, Areesheh, Shadadah, Hole, and Markada), as well as Sokhneh sub-district in Homs governorate, within the Syrian Desert (Badia). These areas were characterised by severe financial strain, widespread inadequate shelter, poor sewage and sanitation coverage, and limited water availability, with compounding system failures further exacerbated by economic deterioration, displacement, and the legacy effects of conflict and drought.

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