MSNA – Research Terms of Reference: Multi-Sector Needs Assessment – LBN2602, Lebanon (September 2026, V 2.0)

Countries: Lebanon, occupied Palestinian territory, Syrian Arab Republic Sources: International Organization for Migration, REACH Initiative Please refer to the attached file. Excerpt 2. Rationale 2. 1 Background Lebanon enters the 2026 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment in a context of overlapping economic, political, and humanitarian shocks. Since 2019, the country has faced one of the most severe economic and financial crises in its history, marked by banking-sector insolvency, severe currency depreciation, loss of household purchasing power, and widening poverty. The economic and physical impact of the 2023–2024 conflict was substantial. The World Bank’s 2025 Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment1 estimated the total economic cost of the conflict at US$14 billion, including US$6. 8 billion in physical damage and US$7. 2 billion in economic losses. Reconstruction and recovery needs were estimated at US$11 billion, with South and El Nabatieh governorates identified among the most impacted areas, followed by Mount Lebanon (includes the southern suburb of Beirut). The assessment further found that Lebanon’s real GDP contracted by 7. 1 percent in 2024, bringing the cumulative GDP decline since 2019 close to 40 percent. While the November 2024 ceasefire created space for partial returns and some temporary easing, the situation deteriorated again in 2026. Hostilities intensified sharply on 2 March 2026, linked to broader regional escalation, leading to renewed displacement, infrastructure damage, access constraints, and increased humanitarian needs. OCHA reported that at least 3, 884 deaths and 11, 856 injuries had been recorded by the Ministry of Public Health since 2 March3. The 2026 escalation has further affected service access and household resilience across multiple sectors. ACAPS4 reported that displacement and movement restrictions have severely affected livelihoods and the economy, while damage to infrastructure, roads, bridges, water systems, health facilities, and markets has constrained both humanitarian response and civilian access to essential services. The same analysis highlights that protracted displacement toward Beirut, Mount Lebanon, Akkar, Baalbek-El Hermel and Syria is expected to increase reliance on host communities, collective shelters, and informal accommodation, further straining response capacity. Lebanon continues to face a severe and worsening humanitarian crisis. Ongoing hostilities despite ceasefire announcements have resulted in sustained displacement, constrained humanitarian access, and limited prospects for safe return. Shelter capacity remains overstretched, essential infrastructure has been damaged, and access to basic services is increasingly restricted. Livelihoods, particularly in agriculture and small-scale commerce, have been disrupted, deepening economic vulnerability and eroding household coping capacities. 6 Municipalities and service providers are under growing pressure as needs continue to rise. According to the revised 2026 Flash Appeal7, an estimated 1. 4 million people are directly affected by the crisis and require humanitarian assistance, while humanitarian partners are seeking US$331. 5 million to sustain and expand multi-sector assistance between June and August 2026. Food security has deteriorated significantly as a result of conflict, displacement, livelihood disruptions, market instability, rising food and fuel prices, and reduced humanitarian assistance. According to the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Projection Update (April–August 2026), approximately 1. 24 million people (24 per cent of the analysed population) are experiencing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 1. 14 million people in Crisis (Phase 3) and 101, 000 people in Emergency (Phase 4). Food insecurity affects all population groups and is particularly severe in conflict-affected southern districts such as Bent Jbeil, Marjaayoun, Sour, and El Nabatieh. The evolving crisis, combined with longstanding economic and social vulnerabilities, highlights the need for reliable and comprehensive evidence on humanitarian needs across population groups and geographical areas. In this context, the 2026 MSNA will provide critical, up-to-date information on needs, vulnerabilities, coping strategies, service access, and displacement dynamics to support humanitarian and stabilization planning. The assessment will complement existing analyses, including IPC and sector-specific assessments, by generating comparable multi-sector evidence to inform prioritization, targeting, response planning, and interagency decision-making for the 2027 response.

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