Country: Zambia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through September in parts of the Southern and Western provinces and in localized areas of the east. From October 2026 to January 2027, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated to expand to southwestern, eastern, and northern areas as household food stocks decline seasonally and market dependence increases. El Niño-induced erratic and below-average rainfall is expected to reduce cultivation and associated agricultural labor opportunities, lowering incomes and weakening poor households’ purchasing power. The Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock’s continued restrictions on livestock movement to prevent the spread of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) are particularly affecting the Western and Southern provinces. In addition, the seasonal fishing ban from December to March, intended to prevent overfishing, is expected to be in effect. These measures are expected to further constrain livelihood opportunities in affected areas through January 2027, further reducing household income during a period of high market reliance. Staple food prices declined further in August as abundant maize supplies improved food access for market-dependent households. According to the Zambia Statistics Agency (Zamstat), national average prices for maize grain rose 4. 4 percent from August to September but remain 15 percent below last year’s levels. By August, purchases by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) had reached approximately 1. 0 million metric tons (MT), double the initial target, at 347 ZMW/50 kilogram (kg) bag, nearly 60 percent above the open-market price of roughly 220 ZMW/50 kg bag. A recently announced agreement to export 540, 000 MT to Kenya provides an additional outlet for surplus production. The above-average maize supplies are expected to continue through at least January 2027. The ongoing very strong El Niño is expected to bring erratic, below-average rainfall during the 2026/27 rainy season, particularly in southern and western Zambia. A delayed onset of rainfall in southern and southeastern areas, coupled with prolonged dry spells during the critical December-February crop development period, is expected to constrain planting and crop growth. This will reduce cultivation, agricultural labor opportunities, and related income.
Zambia – Key Message Update: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected in northern, central, and eastern Zambia, September 2026 – January 2027
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