Afghanistan Food Security Outlook Update, August 2026 – January 2027: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists despite an anticipated favorable start to the season

Countries: Afghanistan, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Pakistan Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January 2027 across parts of the central highlands, east, northeast, and southwest, and urban areas, with additional provinces deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) starting in October. Despite the favorable 2026 harvest, poor households in these areas entered the season with eroded assets following consecutive years of drought and below-average production, and remote, deficit-producing areas face additional constraints from limited production, such as fewer typical labor opportunities, and high transportation costs that are sustaining elevated food prices. Agricultural labor during the winter wheat planting season will provide only a marginal increase in income, as planting is less labor intensive than other crops and is typically handled by landowners themselves, limiting demand for hired labor. As households deplete own-produced stocks in September and casual labor income declines from October, poor households are expected to face food consumption gaps and engage in negative coping strategies, including selling productive assets and taking on debt. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the rest of the country through the projection period. Through September, own-produced food and harvest-related labor, alongside seasonal income from livestock, construction, and petty trade, will allow most households to meet minimum food needs. As harvest stocks deplete and labor opportunities decline from October, market dependence is expected to increase, with poor households relying on coping strategies such as borrowing to maintain food consumption through the winter lean season. The ongoing El Niño event is expected to drive above-average precipitation countrywide between October 2026 and January 2027 the start of the October 2026 to May 2027 wet season. This is expected to enable above average and timely winter wheat planting following four consecutive years of drought between 2021 and 2024. Above-average precipitation is also expected to improve snowpack and snow water volumes countrywide, contingent on temperatures remaining average to below average during the precipitation season.

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